000 AGXX40 KNHC 271958 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 206 PM EST THU FEB 27 2014 UPDATED MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST...EXCEPT ECMWF BLENDED MON AND BEYOND. LATEST NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST AND THE LATEST MWW3. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SW FLORIDA NEAR NAPLES TO THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 60-90 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION HAS REALLY DIMINISHED WITH ONLY SHOWERS LEFT IN THE VICINITY OF EACH BOUNDARY. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE ALSO DIMINISHED TO MAINLY MODERATE LEVELS...AND SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED TO LESS THAN 8 FT AS THE FRONT WEAKENS. THE FRONT WILL STALL FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND YUCATAN PENINSULA LATER TODAY...GRADUALLY DISSIPATING THROUGH FRI. A RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS TO THE NE GULF AND SW-W TO THE TEXAS COASTAL BEND FRI THROUGH SUN. LIGHT TO MODERATE RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP UNDER THE RIDGE WITH 1-2 FT SEAS IN THE NE GULF AND 2-4 FT SEAS ELSEWHERE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND...WITH WINDS INCREASING TO MODERATE TO FRESH LEVELS SUN AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT W OF 87W WHERE THE FRESH SE-S WINDS WILL BE. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO ENTER THE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS LATE SUN INTO EARLY MON MORNING. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING HIGHER WITH REGARD TO THE NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. THE 06Z GFS DID SHOW MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO IN GMZ017 AND GMZ023 MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE. THE 12Z GFS RUN HAS TRENDED LOWER WITH THE WINDS. THE 06Z GEFS 34 KT WIND PROBABILITIES WERE UP TO 40 PERCENT FOR THESE 2 ZONES (SREF ONLY EXTENDS OUT TO 87 HOURS)...BUT THE 12Z GEFS NOW SHOWS 0 PERCENT. THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE CALLS FOR 20-30 KT NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR NOW. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST AND THE LATEST MWW3. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A VERY WEAK AND BROAD PRESSURE PATTERN PREVAILS OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. LIGHT E-SE WINDS AND 1-3 FT SEAS ARE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN. MAINLY MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS AND 4-6 FT SEAS ARE IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN...EXCEPT LOCALLY FRESH AND TO 7 FT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. A WEAK COLD FRONT IN THE SE GULF OF MEXICO WILL STALL NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL LATER TODAY...GRADUALLY DISSIPATING INTO FRI. OTHER THAN A FEW SHOWERS AND A BRIEF WIND SHIFT TO THE N NEAR THE CHANNEL...LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED FROM THIS FRONT. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE NE-E WITH SEAS BUILDING SLIGHTLY IN THE NW CARIBBEAN SAT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN...EXCEPT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG LEVELS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8-10 FT LATE FRI NIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS LOW PRESSURE OVER COLOMBIA DEEPENS. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH E-SE WINDS AND 5-8 FT SEAS PREVAIL...HIGHEST SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THESE MARINE CONDITIONS IS FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST...EXCEPT ECMWF BLENDED MON AND BEYOND. LATEST NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST AND THE LATEST MWW3. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N70W TO ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO S FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS PREVAIL N OF 27N. FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS AND 7-9 FT SEAS ARE LOCATED N OF 27N E OF THE FRONT...WITH MODERATE NW WINDS AND 4-6 FT SEAS BEHIND THE FRONT. THE TAIL END OF ATLC RIDGING EXTENDS OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS FROM NEAR 24N65W TO CENTRAL CUBA AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH MODERATE SE-S WINDS AND 4-6 FT SEAS (1-3 FT INSIDE THE BAHAMAS). THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN LATER TODAY WHILE IT REACHES FROM NEAR 29N65W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY EARLY FRI WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT DIMINISHING TO MODERATE LEVELS AND SEAS QUICKLY SUBSIDING TO LESS THAN 8 FT. A NEW COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP JUST N OF THE AREA TONIGHT...DROPPING S TO 30N EARLY FRI. FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS AND SEAS TO 8 FT WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT EXTENDS FROM 31N70W TO 30.5N74W TO 31N77W FRI MORNING...THEN STALLING AS IT REACHES FROM 31N69W TO 30N74W TO 31N78W BY FRI EVENING. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP N OF THE BAHAMAS ALONG THE FRONT SAT...GRADUALLY SHIFTING E OF 65W THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AS RIDGING BUILDS DOWN ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE N. MODERATE E-SE WINDS AND 4-6 FT DOMINATE THE BASIN MON MORNING UNDER THE RIDGING...TURNING TO THE S-SW OVER THE NW PORTION MON EVENING AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THAT FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW CORNER FROM THE GEORGIA COAST EARLY TUE...SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD BUT NOT REACHING 27N UNTIL LIKELY EARLY WED. THE GFS INDICATES FRESH TO STRONG N-NE WINDS AND 8-11 FT SEAS BEHIND THE FRONT. THE ECMWF SHOWS A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH THE FRONT WITH LOW PRESSURE SCOOTING EASTWARD JUST N OF 31N. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND LOWER SEAS ARE INDICATED WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION. THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE BLENDED FOR THE ATLC FROM MON FORWARD IN TIME. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.