000 AGXX40 KNHC 270646 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 146 AM EST THU FEB 27 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST... EXCEPT NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS WHERE AVAILABLE WITH MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS TO WAVE HEIGHTS BEHIND THE COLD FRONTS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM TAMPA BAY TO THE SW BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE A CYCLONIC SWIRL OBSERVED IN OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS IS ANALYZED AS A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW. AREAS OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE GULF WATERS TO THE N AND W OF THE COLD FRONT AND MANUALLY ADDED TO HAZARD GRIDS. NLY WINDS ARE OBSERVED AT 15- 20 KT N OF THE FRONT AND NW-N 20-25 KT WINDS W OF THE FRONT OVER THE WESTERN GULF. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO A MAX OF 15-20 KT OVER THE SW GULF THIS AFTERNOON AND 10-15 KT ELSEWHERE AS THE FRONT STALLS FROM THE FL STRAITS TO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. A POST-FRONTAL SURFACE RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE MS DELTA TO NE MEXICO TONIGHT WITH SLY 5-10 KT FLOW OVER THE NW GULF WATERS TO THE N OF THE RIDGE AXIS. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT E TO A PSN FROM THE FL BIG BEND TO THE TX COASTAL BEND FRI EVENING NIGHT...AND MEANDER ALONG THIS POSITION THROUGH SUN EVENING. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN TONIGHT INCREASING THE SLY FLOW N OF THE RIDGE TO 10-15 KT BY EARLY FRI...AND GRADUALLY INCREASE TO SE 15-20 KT WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA W OF 88W ON SAT NIGHT CONTINUING THROUGH SUN EVENING. THE RIDGE WILL RETRACT E BEGINNING SUN EVENING ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS LATE SUN NIGHT REACHING FROM THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE TO THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE MON...AND MOVING SE OF THE AREA LATE TUE. EXPECTING THE POST-FRONTAL NLY WINDS TO MAX AT 30 KT OVER THE WESTERN WATERS ON MON NIGHT WITH NLY 20-25 KT FLOW ELSEWHERE N AND W OF THE FRONT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST EXCEPT NWPS FOR WAVE PARAMETERS WHERE AVAILABLE. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. NE 20-25 KT WINDS WITH SEAS TO 8 FT ARE CURRENTLY OBSERVED WITHIN 75 NM OF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA...AND EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH SUNRISE THIS MORNING. THE NOCTURNAL MAX ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA IS EXPECTED TO MAX AT 25 KT AGAIN TONIGHT AND ON SAT NIGHT. THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN ON SUN EVENING ACROSS THE ENTIRE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXPANDING THE AREA OF ENHANCED NE FLOW OUT TO ABOUT 150 NM FROM THE COLOMBIAN COAST. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX ON MON WITH THE AREA OF ENHANCED WINDS SHRINKING TO WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COAST MON NIGHT. A WEAK SURFACE HIGH IS ANALYZED NEAR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS WITH LIGHT 5-10 KT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE HIGH WILL LOSE IDENTITY ON FRI ALONG A NW TO SE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN GULF TO NEAR JAMAICA. NE FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN ON SAT...THEN THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY BECOMING SE AT 5-15 KT ON MON. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/ OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST EXCEPT NWPS FOR WAVE PARAMETERS WHERE AVAILABLE. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N75W TO CENTRAL FL WITH A LINE OF SCT RW/ISOL TS WELL OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM 28N77W TO 31N68W AND DENOTED IN HAZARD GRIDS FOR TODAY. THE SLY FLOW E OF THE FRONT IS CURRENTLY INCREASING TO 20-25 KT WITH THESE CONDITIONS SHIFTING E OF 65W THIS EVENING AND SHIFTING N OF 31N BETWEEN 65-55W ON FRI. THE GFS SOLUTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS IS COMPLEX. THE MODEL BLENDER HELPS SIMPLIFY THE SITUATION ESPECIALLY ON THE MARINE GRAPHICS. BASICALLY EXPECT THE FRONT TO SLOW FROM 31N62W TO THE NW BAHAMAS ON FRI MORNING WITH A SECONDARY NLY SURGE DEVELOPING FROM BERMUDA TO 30N78W. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AT LEAST ONE SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SECONDARY SURGE...AND THIS LOW IS FORECAST NEAR 30N69W ON FRI EVENING. AS THE LOW LIFTS OUT TO NE ON FRI NIGHT THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SUPPORTING NE 20-25 KT N OF 30N WITHIN ABOUT 360 NM W OF THE LOW...WITH A DEVELOPING WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW OF THE LOW TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. EXPECT THIS SECONDARY SYSTEM TO MERGE WITH WHATEVER REMAINS OF THE INITIAL FRONT ALONG A LINE FROM 31N58W TO 22N65W ON SAT NIGHT...AND FROM 25N55W TO 20N58W ON SUN NIGHT. A POST-FRONTAL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO CENTRAL FL EARLY MON WITH SLY FLOW INCREASING TO 15- 20 KT N OF THE RIDGE ON MON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE GA COAST ON TUE MORNING...AND REACHING THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS ON TUE EVENING. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.