000 AGXX40 KNHC 261821 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 121 PM EST WED FEB 26 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST EXCEPT NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS BEGINNING ON THU EVENING. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT HAS BREACHED THE NW AND N CENTRAL GULF WATERS STRETCHING FROM NEAR APALACHEE BAY TO NEAR BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS TO 8 FT FOLLOW THE FRONT...HIGHEST SEAS W OF 94W. A FEW ELEVATED OIL PLATFORMS IN THE NW GULF ARE UP TO 30 KT AS WELL. SOME LINGERING DENSE FOG WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES CONTINUE TO BE REPORTED AT STATIONS KGBK AND KATP IN THE N CENTRAL GMZ013 WATERS. ATLC RIDGING NOSES INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE W CENTRAL GULF NEAR 24N97W. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND 2-4 FT SEAS ARE MAINLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGING. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM NEAR TAMPA BAY FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT...STALLING OVER THE SE GULF AND YUCATAN PENINSULA THU WHERE IT WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH FRI. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS SUBSIDING TO 8 FT OR LESS BY THU EVENING. HIGH PRES OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL EXTEND A RIDING TO THE SW ACROSS THE GULF LATE FRI INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN GULF. THE HIGH AND RIDGE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD LATE SAT INTO SUN ALLOWING FOR RETURN FLOW TO EXPAND TO ACROSS THE GULF WHILE INCREASING TO MODERATE TO FRESH LEVELS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS BY MON MORNING...REACHING FROM APALACHEE BAY TO THE COAST OF VERACRUZ BY LATE MON. WINDS AND SEAS BEHIND THIS FRONT CURRENTLY ARE FORECAST TO BE SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH THE FRONT WEAKENING AND STALLING OVER THE SE GULF BY TUE. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST EXCEPT NWPS FOR WAVE PARAMETERS WHERE AVAILABLE. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. NE TO E 20-25 KT WINDS WITH SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT ARE OBSERVED WITHIN 90-120 NM OF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 7 FT BY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THU AS THE ALREADY RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS FURTHER. THE NOCTURNAL MAX ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA IS EXPECTED TO MAX AT 20 KT AGAIN LATE THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI...THEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN ON SAT EVENING INCREASING THE WINDS BACK TO 20-25 KT LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING...AND AGAIN THE FOLLOWING TWO NIGHTS/MORNINGS. LIGHT 5-10 KT SE WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND EASTERLY 10-15 KT WINDS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT WINDS WILL BECOME NE-E 15-20 KT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN ON SUN AND SUN NIGHT...DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT ON MON. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST EXCEPT NWPS FOR WAVE PARAMETERS WHERE AVAILABLE. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE FAR NE CORNER. VERY ACTIVE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING NEAR THE FRONT MAINLY E OF 65W... SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE AREA ALONG 64W/65W. ATLC RIDGING EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS ROUGHLY ALONG 24N EXTENDING TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS DOMINATE THE BASIN. SEAS ARE 1-3 FT INSIDE THE BAHAMAS... WITH 4-6 FT SEAS OUTSIDE THE BAHAMAS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS MOVING INTO THE NW CORNER OFF THE GEORGIA COAST. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO MODERATE TO FRESH NEAR THIS FRONT INTO THIS EVENING WITH IT STRETCHING FROM 31N71W TO NEAR WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA BY EARLY THU...WHILE THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMES DIFFUSE AND SHIFTS NE AWAY FROM THE OFFSHORE WATERS. WINDS WILL FURTHER INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG LEVELS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THU AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS JUST N OF 31N INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND THE ATLC RIDGING. WINDS BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL BE MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS THE LOW QUICKLY MOVES NE OF THE AREA THU NIGHT WITH WINDS RAPIDLY DIMINISH BACK TO LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WITH SUBSIDING SEAS. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL AND LINGER ALONG 27N FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. A REINFORCING FRONT WILL DROP S INTO THE AREA FRI MORNING...STALLING ALONG 30N BY FRI AFTERNOON. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED OUT BOUNDARY ALONG 30N WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS BEHIND IT... DIMINISHING SAT AFTERNOON AS THE LOW MOVES E OF 65W. THE PATTERN FINALLY SETTLES DOWN AND BECOMES MUCH MORE TRANQUIL LATE SUN INTO MON AS HIGH PRES MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND MOVES EASTWARD N OF 31N ALLOWING FOR RIDGING TO DOMINATE FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.