000 AGXX40 KNHC 260640 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 140 AM EST WED FEB 26 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST EXCEPT NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS BEGINNING ON THU EVENING. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. A SURFACE HIGH IS JUST W OF TAMPA BAY WITH LIGHT SLY FLOW ACROSS THE GULF WITH SEAS OF 1-3 FT. LOCALLY DENSE FOG REPORTED IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS TO THE N OF 26N THUS CARRIED IN HAZARDS GRIDS. THE HIGH CENTER WILL SHIFT S TODAY LOSING IDENTITY IN AN ATLC RIDGE BUILDING W THROUGH THE FL STRAITS. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW WATERS AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING AND REACH FROM THE FL BIG BEND TO NE MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON AS NLY 20-25 KT WINDS AND SEAS 5-8 FT DEVELOP NW OF THE FRONT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL SHIFT S ACROSS THE W-CENTRAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THU THEN DIMINISH. THE FRONT WILL STALL AND WEAKEN ACROSS FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE ON THU EVENING AND THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH EARLY SAT. A POST-FRONTAL RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE MS DELTA TO NE MEXICO AT SUNRISE FRI WITH SLY 10-15 KT FLOW OVER THE NW GULF WATERS TO THE N OF THE RIDGE AXIS. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO A PSN FROM THE FL BIG BEND TO THE TX COASTAL BEND FRI NIGHT...AND REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH SUN NIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN LATE SAT WITH SE 15- 20 KT WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA W OF 85W THROUGH LATE SUN. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CLOCK TO S AND AND DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT OVER THE WESTERN WATERS ON SUN NIGHT AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONT DIPPING INTO THE NW WATERS ON MON. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST EXCEPT NWPS FOR WAVE PARAMETERS WHERE AVAILABLE. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. NE 20-25 KT WINDS WITH SEAS TO 9 FT ARE OBSERVED WITHIN 120 NM OF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA...AND EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH SUNRISE THIS MORNING. THE NOCTURNAL MAX ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA IS EXPECTED TO MAX AT 20 KT BEGINNING TONIGHT AND EACH NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT. THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN ON SAT EVENING INCREASING THE WINDS TO 20-25 KT LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING AND AGAIN ON SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING. LIGHT 5-10 KT SE WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND ELY 10-15 KT WINDS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT WINDS WILL BECOME NE-E 15-20 KT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN ON SUN AND SUN NIGHT...DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT ON MON. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/ OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST EXCEPT NWPS FOR WAVE PARAMETERS WHERE AVAILABLE. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM 31N53W TO 30N68W TO 27N75W ACCOMPANIED BY SCT RW/ISOL TS. ASSOCIATED WINDS ARE CURRENTLY LESS THAN 20 KT. AN ATLC RIDGE E OF THE AREA WILL STRENGTHEN AND PUSH REMNANTS OF THE FRONT N TODAY WITH THE SLY FLOW S OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY INCREASING TO 15-20 KT TODAY... AND FURTHER INCREASING TO 20-25 KT NEAR 30N55W TONIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT IN THAT AREA. A NEW COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE GA COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND REACH FROM 31N71W TO THE NW BAHAMAS ON THU AFTERNOON WITH SLY FLOW INCREASING 20-25 KT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 28N WITHIN 480 NM E OF THE FRONT. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX E OF THE FRONT LATE THU NIGHT AS THE FRONT PASSES BY BERMUDA WITH THE SW FLOW DIMINISHING TO 15-20 KT. THE GFS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AN SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONT NEAR 31N70W ON THU EVENING AND MOVES THE LOW NE ALONG THE FRONT AND N OF 31N ON FRI. THIS REASONING DEPICTED ON THE 48 HOUR GRAPHICS WITH THE GRADIENT TIGHTENING W OF THE LOW AND FRONT BY EARLY FRI INCREASING THE POST FRONTAL FLOW TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 29N W OF THE FRONT TO ABOUT 77W. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE E REACHING FROM 29N55W TO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS ON SUN NIGHT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.