000 AGXX40 KNHC 250645 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 145 AM EST TUE FEB 25 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST WHICH IS BLENDED WITH ECMWF IN EXTENDED PERIODS. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST EXCEPT NWPS FOR WAVE PARAMETERS WHERE AVAILABLE. MED-HIGH CONFIDENCE. AN E-W TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM TAMPA BAY TO NEAR 28N93W ALONG A 5-10 KT WIND SHIFT. UPPER DIFFLUENCE WAS IN PHASE WITH THIS LOW LEVEL TROUGH AND SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION FIRED UP WITHIN ABOUT 90 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS ON SUN NIGHT...WITH THE CONVECTION NOW DISSIPATING ALONG THE TROUGH TO THE E OF 87W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE WILL PERSIST OVER THE NE GULF AND CONVECTION IS CONTINUED IN THE WEATHER GRIDS TODAY. ADDITIONALLY FOG IS REPORTED BY SEVERAL SHIPS IN THE OFFSHORE DOMAIN AS WELL AS WITHIN THE COASTAL WATERS AND COASTAL PLAINS. SO FOG IS CONTINUED IN THE WEATHER GRIDS TODAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE GULF...AND OVER THE NW PORTION TONIGHT. A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT IS ENTERING THE NW WATERS ATTM WITH THE EASTERN SEGMENT OF THE FRONT FORECAST TO PASS E OF THE AREA LATE TODAY. THE WESTERN SEGMENT OF THE FRONT WILL STALL BRIEFLY ALONG 24N THIS EVENING...AND THEN LIFT SLOWLY N TONIGHT AS LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS. A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS NEAR 27N84W EARLY TUE NIGHT AND SHIFT S TO NEAR THE DRY TORTUGAS BY SUNRISE WED ALLOWING ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE NW WATERS. STRONG NORTHERLY 20-25 KT FLOW IS EXPECTED BEHIND THIS FRONT EARLY WED MORNING DIMINISHING TO 15-20 KT LATE WED NIGHT AS THE EASTERN SEGMENT OF FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE FL STRAITS. THE WESTERN SEGMENT WILL HANG UP OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AS A NW-SE ORIENTATED TROUGH ON THU...THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THU NIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE ENTIRE GULF BY LATE FRI. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST EXCEPT NWPS FOR WAVE PARAMETERS WHERE AVAILABLE. MED-HIGH CONFIDENCE. NE-E WINDS CURRENTLY AT 25-30 KT WITHIN ABOUT 90 NM OF THE NE COLOMBIAN COAST ARE SURROUNDED BY 20-25 KT ELSEWHERE S OF 15N BETWEEN 72-79W. LIGHT NE-E WINDS ARE OBSERVED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH FRESH TRADES NOTED ELSEWHERE. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX TODAY DIMINISHING THESE TRADES...BUT EXPECT ANOTHER NOCTURNAL 25-30 KT PULSE LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNRISE TUE NEAR THE COLOMBIAN COAST. THE LATE NIGHT MAXIMUM SHOULD ONLY BE AROUND 25 KT WITHIN 120 NM OF NW COLOMBIA ON TUE NIGHT INTO SUNRISE WED... THEN ONLY A MAX OF 20 KT IS EXPECTED NEAR THE COLOMBIAN COAST LATE EACH NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NW CARIBBEAN ON WED NIGHT AND THU...WITH LIGHT SLY WINDS ON WED QUICKLY VEERING TO THE NE BEHIND THE FRONT ON THU MORNING...AND BECOMING SE AGAIN THU AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH FRI. COMBINED SEAS OF 5-7 FT EXPECTED IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONES THROUGH FRI. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST WHICH IS BLENDED WITH ECMWF IN EXTENDED PERIODS. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST EXCEPT NWPS FOR WAVE PARAMETERS WHERE AVAILABLE. MED-HIGH CONFIDENCE. A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 29N55W ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS TO SE FL WILL RETRACT E TODAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE NW WATERS ACCOMPANIED BY A SW-W-NE 15-20 KT WIND SHIFT. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM BERMUDA TO NEAR 28N70W WHERE IT WILL BECOME STATIONARY NW TO NE FL LATE TONIGHT. THE EASTERN SEGMENT OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE E STALLING NEAR 31N53W LATE TONIGHT WITH THE SEGMENT OF THE FRONT W OF 60W ALREADY LIFTING NE AS A WARM FRONT. THIS WARM FRONT SEGMENT WILL ACCELERATE TO THE NE ON TUE NIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE NW WATERS WED MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS E OF THE FRONT WILL INCREASE TO 20- 25 KT ON WED AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE E OF THE FRONT THROUGH THU AFTERNOON. W-NW WINDS W OF THE FRONT WILL MAX AT 20 KT ON WED THEN DIMINISH TO 15 KT ON WED NIGHT. THE WESTERN SEGMENT OF THE FRONT WILL STALL N OF THE BAHAMAS ON THU THEN LIFT NE AS A WEAK WARM FRONT ON THU NIGHT AND FRI. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.