000 AGXX40 KNHC 241938 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 238 PM EST MON FEB 24 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST WHICH IS BLENDED WITH ECMWF IN EXTENDED PERIODS. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST EXCEPT NWPS FOR WAVE PARAMETERS WHERE AVAILABLE. MED-HIGH CONFIDENCE. RIGS OVER THE N CENTRAL AND NW GULF ARE STILL SHOWING AREAS OF DENSE FOG...EVEN AS THUNDERSTORMS FORM ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT STARTING TO ENTER NORTHERN GULF WATERS. THE UPPER SUPPORT FOR THIS FRONT IS SHIFTING EAST...AND THE FRONT WILL REACH ONLY AS FAR AS 28N OVER THE NORTHERN GULF LATER TODAY BEFORE STALLING AND STARTING TO DRIFT N TOMORROW. THE WARM MOIST AIRMASS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT OVER THE COOLER GULF WATERS WILL KEEP FOG IN THE FORECAST OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH TUE. THE FOG POTENTIAL WILL DECREASE AS A SECOND STRONGER FRONT PUSHES INTO THE GULF ON WED AND SWEEPS THROUGH THE SE GULF BY WED NIGHT. STRONG NW WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN GULF. CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT AS IT SHIFTS SOUTHWARD OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG GLOBAL MODELS REGARDING THE MOVEMENT OF A COUPLE OF SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE ALOFT MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THU INTO FRI...FOLLOWED BY A DEEPENING LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. FRI INTO SAT. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE BY LATE SAT OVER THE WESTERN GULF AS A RESULT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST EXCEPT NWPS FOR WAVE PARAMETERS WHERE AVAILABLE. MED-HIGH CONFIDENCE. AN ASCAT PASS JUST MISSED THE WINDY COAST OF COLOMBIA BETWEEN BARRANQUILLA AND CARTAGENA...BUT A RECENT ALTIMETER PASS INDICATED SEAS TO 12 FT WERE STILL IN PLACE. WINDS TO 25 KT ARE LIKELY OFF THIS COAST CURRENTLY...REACHING UP TO 30 KT TONIGHT. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE. THE LATE NIGHT MAXIMUM SHOULD ONLY BE AROUND 25 KT WITHIN 120 NM OF NW COLOMBIA ON TUE NIGHT INTO SUNRISE WED... THEN ONLY A MAX OF 20 KT IS EXPECTED NEAR THE COLOMBIAN COAST LATE EACH NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NW CARIBBEAN ON WED NIGHT AND THU...WITH LIGHT SLY WINDS ON WED QUICKLY VEERING TO THE NE BEHIND THE FRONT ON THU MORNING...AND BECOMING SE AGAIN THU AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH FRI. COMBINED SEAS OF 5-7 FT EXPECTED IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONES THROUGH FRI. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST WHICH IS BLENDED WITH ECMWF IN EXTENDED PERIODS. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST EXCEPT NWPS FOR WAVE PARAMETERS WHERE AVAILABLE. MED-HIGH CONFIDENCE. A 1430 UTC ASCAT PASS CLEARLY DEFINED A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 31N73W TO CAPE CANAVERAL...AHEAD OF WEAK COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTH OF 30N W OF 75W. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE TROUGH N OF 28N. THE ASCAT PASS SHOWED N WINDS 20 TO 25 KT FOLLOWING THE TROUGH. THE FRONT WILL SLIDE EASTWARD AND LEAVE A E-W ORIENTED STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG ROUGHLY 28N THROUGH NIGHT...BEFORE WEAKENING AND LIFTING NORTHWARD TUE. ANOTHER FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST WED. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A SURFACE LOW FORMING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY OFF THE CAROLINAS. THIS WILL ENHANCE SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 28N BY LATE WED. THE FRONT WILL REACH A POSITION FROM 31N68W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS BY EARLY THU. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERE IS ALSO GROWING CONSENSUS OF A BROAD WEAK LOW FORMING ALONG THE BOUNDARY NEAR 28N74W BY FRI NIGHT AS A REINFORCING SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH FLORIDA. THIS WILL ALLOW THE FRONT TO SAG A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH REACHING FROM 28N65W TO CENTRAL CUBA THROUGH SAT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.