000 AGXX40 KNHC 231909 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 209 PM EST SUN FEB 23 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST...EXCEPT WITH ECMWF BLEND IN EXTENDED PERIODS. LATEST NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MED-HIGH CONFIDENCE. CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACTIVE ALONG THE N CENTRAL AND NE GULF COAST CURRENTLY...WHERE THE REMNANT OF AN EARLIER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRIFTING NORTHWARD. OIL RIGS ARE STILL REPORTING AREAS OF FOG OVER THE N CENTRAL AND NW GULF...ALTHOUGH THIS IS LARGELY LIFTED ABOVE 1 NM. SEA FOG WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN GULF. DENSE FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE COASTAL WATERS AREAS...SEE LOCAL FORECAST FOR FURTHER DETAILS. OTHERWISE GENERALLY BENIGN WEATHER PERSISTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SEAS 3 FT OR LESS. THE FORECAST THROUGH MID WEEK REMAINS UNCHANGED WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS THE N CENTRAL AND NE GULF WATERS TONIGHT AND MON. FOG WILL LIKELY REMAIN A FACTOR OVER THE NORTHERN GULF SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY INTO TUE. ANOTHER STRONGER FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS LATE TUE. THE FOG WILL CLEAR AS THE FRONT IS FOLLOWED BY STRONG NE WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE NW AND N CENTRAL GULF. THE FRONT WILL START TO STALL FROM SW FLORIDA TO YUCATAN BY LATE WED AS THE SUPPORTING UPPER DYNAMICS SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THE FRONT WILL SAG SE AND STALL FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL THU INTO FRI. HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH STATES THU BEHIND THE FRONT...ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH THROUGH LATE FRI. OTHER THAN THE TOO SLOW UKMET...THERE REMAIN NO MAJOR DIFFERENCE IN THE LATEST MODEL OUTPUTS THROUGH THU. BEYOND THAT TIME...THE GFS AND CANADIAN DEEPEN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE ECMWF IS MORE CONSERVATIVE AND IS CLOSER TO ENSEMBLE MEANS...SO THE FORECAST FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK INCLUDES A BLEND OF THE ECMWF...WITH WEAKER RETURN FLOW OVER THE NW GULF THAN THE GFS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MED-HIGH CONFIDENCE. STRONG TRADE WINDS WERE ACTIVE OFF COLOMBIA THIS MORNING...BUT THE OVERALL TRADE WIND FLOW IS ALREADY DIMINISHING ACROSS THE GULF AS HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WEAKENS IN THE FACE OF SERIES OF COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA N OF 28N. THE GRADIENT IS STILL TIGHT ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN ANOTHER PULSE OF WINDS TO 30 KT OFF COLOMBIA AGAIN TONIGHT...BUT WITH ONLY 20 TO 25 KT FOR MON AND TUE NIGHTS. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NW CARIBBEAN ON WED NIGHT AND THU...WITH LIGHT SLY WINDS ON WED QUICKLY VEERING TO THE NE BEHIND THE FRONT ON THU MORNING...AND BECOMING SE AGAIN LATE THU. NE SWELL IS PRODUCING COMBINED SEAS OF 7-9 FT IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...BUT EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO 5-7 FT LATER TODAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. LITTLE TO NO DIFFERENCE IN MODEL OUTPUT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST...EXCEPT WITH ECMWF BLEND IN EXTENDED PERIODS. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MED-HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTRUBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND THE WARMER GULF STREAM OFF NE FLORIDA AND N OF THE GRAND BAHAMA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT EASTWARD N OF 28N THROUGH TONIGHT AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST TONIGHT...AND SWEEP EASTWARD ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 27N THROUGH TUE. THE REMNANTS OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTHWARD LATE TUE...AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL EMERGE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST BY EARLY WED MORNING. STRONG W TO NW WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES SE...REACHING FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO SOUTH FLORIDA BY WED NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL SLOW AT THAT POINT AND STALL BY FRI MORNING IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS. WINDS N OF THE FRONT WILL DIMINISH THU AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE SE UNITED STATES. THE GFS SHOWS A WEAK TROUGH OR LOW OFF NE FLORIDA BY FRI. OFFICIAL FORECAST INCLUDES A BLEND OF MORE CONSERVATIVE ECMWF FOR BEYOND THU INDICATING WEAK TROUGHING FARTHER NORTH WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE NW TO N FLOW PREVAILING THROUGH LATE FRI. .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.