000 AGXX40 KNHC 230639 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 139 AM EST SUN FEB 23 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST EXCEPT NWPS FOR WAVE PARAMETERS WHERE AVAILABLE. MED-HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WEAKENING FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM TAMPA BAY TO THE W- CENTRAL GULF WILL LIFT N TODAY AS SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OVER THE NW WATERS SPREADS E ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. ALTHOUGH SE WINDS OF 15-20 KT ARE CURRENTLY OBSERVED OVER THE NW AND N-CENTRAL ZONES...SOME SHIPS ARE ALSO REPORTING FOG IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS...THUS INTRODUCED AN AREA OF 1SM FOG IN THE WEATHER GRIDS FOR TODAY. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE NW WATERS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHERN WATERS TONIGHT WITH THE EASTERN SEGMENT OF THE FRONT PASSING E OF THE AREA ON MON. THE WESTERN SEGMENT OF THE FRONT WILL STALL ALONG 27N LATE TONIGHT INTO MON...THEN LIFT SLOWLY N ON MON NIGHT AS LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTHERN WATERS TO THE N OF AN ATLC RIDGE BUILDING W ACROSS S FL THEN NW TO THE NW GULF. A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS NEAR 26N84W LATE TUE WITH THE RIDGE CONTINUING NW TO NEAR 27N95W. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT S TO NEAR THE DRY TORTUGAS TUE EVENING WITH THE RIDGE QUICKLY RETREATING SE ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE NORTHERN WATERS...THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM THE FL PANHANDLE TO THE TX COASTAL BEND TUE EVENING. MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT LATE TUE NIGHT...AND FURTHER INCREASE TO 20-25 KT WED MORNING...THEN DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT BY WED EVENING AS THE EASTERN SEGMENT OF FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE FL STRAITS. THE WESTERN SEGMENT WILL HANG UP OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AS A NW-SE ORIENTATED TROUGH BY SUNRISE THU...THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THU NIGHT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST EXCEPT NWPS FOR WAVE PARAMETERS WHERE AVAILABLE. MED-HIGH CONFIDENCE. NE-E WINDS CURRENTLY AT 25-30 KT WITHIN ABOUT 90 NM OF THE NE COLOMBIAN COAST ARE SURROUNDED BY 20-25 KT ELSEWHERE BETWEEN 70- 82W. LIGHT NE-E WINDS ARE OBSERVED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH FRESH TRADES NOTED ELSEWHERE. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX TODAY DIMINISHING THE TRADES...BUT EXPECT NOCTURNAL 25-30 KT PULSES LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNRISE MON...AND LATE MON NIGHT INTO SUNRISE TUE NEAR THE COLOMBIAN COAST. THEREAFTER...THE LATE NIGHT MAXIMUM SHOULD ONLY BE AROUND 25 KT WITHIN 120 NM OF NW COLOMBIA. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NW CARIBBEAN ON WED NIGHT AND THU...WITH LIGHT SLY WINDS ON WED QUICKLY VEERING TO THE NE BEHIND THE FRONT ON THU MORNING...AND BECOMING SE AGAIN LATE THU. NE SWELL IS PRODUCING COMBINED SEAS OF 7-9 FT IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...BUT EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO 5-7 FT LATER TODAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST EXCEPT NWPS FOR WAVE PARAMETERS WHERE AVAILABLE. MED-HIGH CONFIDENCE. AN ENE-WSW RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 28N55W TO THE NW BAHAMAS WILL REMAIN STATIONARY TODAY BLOCKING THE EASTERN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM 31N75W TO CENTRAL FL. THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN LATER TODAY PUSHING REMNANTS OF THE FRONT N OF 31N BRIEFLY THIS EVENING. A RE-ENFORCING NORTHERLY SURGE WILL PUSH THE FRONT S AGAIN AND BACK INTO THE NW WATERS LATE TONIGHT...WITH THE FRONT REACHING FROM BERMUDA TO THE NW BAHAMAS ON MON EVENING. THE EASTERN SEGMENT OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE E ON TUE REACHING FROM 31N55W TO 28N70W WHERE THE FRONT WILL BRIEFLY STALL AS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FRONT W OF 75W BEGINS TO LIFT NE AS A WARM FRONT TO NEAR 31N78W. THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT RAPIDLY NE ON TUE NIGHT AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE NW WATERS REACHING FROM BERMUDA TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ON WED NIGHT. THIS STRONG FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SLOW LATE THU AS IT EXTENDS FROM 31N58W TO HISPANIOLA. THE WESTERN PORTION OF THIS FRONT WILL DRIFT NW LATE THU NIGHT. .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.