000 AGXX40 KNHC 221918 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 218 PM EST SAT FEB 22 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MED-HIGH CONFIDENCE. A STALLING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE SOUTHWEST GULF. BUOYS INDICATE LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE GULF WITH SEAS RUNNING MOSTLY 2 TO 4 FT...EXCEPT FOR SUBSIDING SWELL OVER THE WESTERN CENTRAL GULF WHERE BUOYS INDICATE SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT. AREAS OF DENSE FOG IN THE NEAR SHORE WATERS OFF TAMPA HAS STARTED TO LIFT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH TONIGHT AND BECOME DIFFUSE. GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A LOW AMPLITUDE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH SUN...SUPPORTING ANOTHER WEAK AND PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF LAST SUN AND MON. THE LATEST GFS REMAINS A BIT FASTER THAN THE ECMWF WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE ENSEMBLE MEAN. GOING INTO THE WEEK THE FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF ALTHOUGH THERE IS LITTLE DIFFERENCE IS SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS LATE SUN/EARLY MON ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS. GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE FRONT...THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE IN THE COASTAL WATERS OR OVER LAND AND THE FORECAST DOES NOT INCLUDE FOG AT THIS TIME. LOOKING AHEAD...A STRONGER IMPULSE MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY LATE TUE INTO WED. THE UKMET IS SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALONG WITH ENSEMBLE MEANS. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL EMERGE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS TUE NIGHT...AND SWEEP ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN GULF THROUGH LATE WED...BRINGING FRESH TO STRONG NE FLOW TO THE N CENTRAL AND NW GULF WED AND WED NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM WESTERN CUBA ACROSS YUCATAN TO THE SW GULF BY THU WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE E FLOW. SE RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE NW GULF BY THU NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT IMPULSE DIGGING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MED-HIGH CONFIDENCE. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 14 UTC INDICATED WINDS TO 30 KT OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA BETWEEN BARRANQUILLA AND CARTAGENA. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE AGAIN SLIGHTLY TONIGHT ALTHOUGH PROBABLY NOT TO GALE FORCE AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE PREVIOUS SEVERAL NIGHTS. THE OVERNIGHT PULSES WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 25 KT BY MON NIGHT AS A SERIES OF PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONTS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND NORTHERN GULF KEEP THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF THE AREA FAIRLY WEAK. SIMILARLY ELSEWHERE OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH MID WEEK ALONG WITH THE RELATED FRESH EASTERLY SWELL. ONE OF THE COLD FRONTS WILL MANAGE TO PENETRATE THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BY LATE WED AND STALL...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE MOSTLY SE WINDS PERSISTING ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN INTO THU. NE SWELL IS PRODUCING COMBINED SEAS OF 6-9 FT IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...BUT EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO 5-7 FT ON SUN GRADUALLY SUBSIDING TO 4-6 FT BY MID WEEK. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MED-HIGH CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR 30N77W TO NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL. CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST AHEAD OF THE FRONT NORTH OF 27N AS FAR EAST AS 70W. THE SUPPORTING UPPER FLOW IS BECOMING MORE ZONAL ALLOWING THE FRONT TO WEAKEN AND STALL FROM 31N74W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA TONIGHT. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ALONG ROUGHLY 28N WILL STRENGTHEN ON SUN PUSHING REMNANTS OF THE FRONT N OF 31N. A REINFORCING NORTHERLY SURGE WILL PUSH THE FRONT S AGAIN AND BACK INTO THE NW WATERS LATE SUN NIGHT...WITH THE FRONT REACHING FROM BERMUDA TO THE NW BAHAMAS ON MON EVENING. THE EASTERN SEGMENT OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE E ON TUE REACHING FROM 31N55W TO 28N70W THEN BECOMING A WARM FRONT TO NEAR 31N77W. THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT RAPIDLY NE ON TUE NIGHT AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE NW WATERS REACHING FROM BERMUDA TO THE NW BAHAMAS ON WED NIGHT AND FROM 31N57W TO HISPANIOLA LATE THU. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.