000
AGXX40 KNHC 220641
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
141 AM EST SAT FEB 22 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO... 

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST 
EXCEPT NWPS FOR WAVE PARAMETERS WHERE AVAILABLE. MED-HIGH 
CONFIDENCE.

A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE FL BIG BEND TO 22N94W TO THE 
CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL STALL FROM NEAR TAMPA BAY TO THE 
EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE THIS MORNING. THE SOUTHERN SEGMENT OF 
THE FRONT WILL PERSIST AS A N-S TROUGH OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE 
INTO THIS EVENING WHILE THE NORTHERN SEGMENT DISSIPATES ALONG 
26N. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AT 10 KT SETS UP OVER THE NW GULF 
TODAY AND SPREADS E ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD 
FRONT DIPS INTO THE N-CENTRAL WATERS ON SUN NIGHT WITH THE 
EASTERN SEGMENT OF THE FRONT PASSING E OF THE AREA LATE MON. 
REMNANTS OF THIS FRONT WILL LIFT SLOWLY N ON MON AND MON NIGHT. 
A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL DEVELOP JUST W OF TAMPA BAY ON MON 
NIGHT AND SHIFT S ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF REACHING NEAR THE DRY 
TORTUGAS ON TUE NIGHT. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS S ON TUE NIGHT AND THE 
REMNANTS OF THE SECOND FRONT MOVES N OF THE AREA...A THIRD COLD 
FRONT WILL MOVE S INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS. THIS THIRD FRONT 
WILL BE REINFORCED EARLY WED AS IT REACHES FROM THE FL BIG BEND 
TO SE TX...THEN RACES SE OF THE GULF ON WED NIGHT. THE NORTHERLY 
POST-FRONTAL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 25-30 KT ON WED 
DIMINISHING TO 20-25 KT WED NIGHT.  

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 
55W AND 65W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST
EXCEPT NWPS FOR WAVE PARAMETERS WHERE AVAILABLE. MED-HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS OFF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA WILL  
PERSIST THROUGH MID MORNING TODAY...THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 
20-25 KT JUST AFTER SUNRISE ON SUN...THEN PULSE AGAIN TO 30 KT 
LATE SUN NIGHT. THE NOCTURNAL PULSES WILL MAX AT 25 KT ON MON 
NIGHT...TUE NIGHT AND WED NIGHT...BUT ONLY A 20 KT MAX IS 
EXPECTED ON THU NIGHT. FRESH TRADES WILL CONTINUE ELSEWHERE IN 
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH SUN EVENING WITH MODERATE TRADES 
EXPECTED E OF 68W AND ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN ON SUN AFTERNOON 
WITH LITTLE CHANGE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH TUE NIGHT. A COLD FRONT 
WILL PASS THROUGH THE NW CARIBBEAN ON THU...WITH LIGHT SLY WINDS 
ON WED QUICKLY VEERING TO THE NE BEHIND THE FRONT ON THU 
MORNING. NE SWELL IS PRODUCING COMBINED SEAS OF 6-9 FT IN THE 
TROPICAL N ATLC...BUT EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO 5-7 FT ON SUN 
GRADUALLY SUBSIDING TO 4-6 FT BY MID WEEK.
 
...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL 
FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST 
EXCEPT NWPS FOR WAVE PARAMETERS WHERE AVAILABLE. MED-HIGH 
CONFIDENCE.

A RIDGE FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO CENTRAL FL WILL SHIFT E AS A COLD  
FRONT MOVES OFF THE NE FL COAST THIS MORNING...STALLING FROM 
31N74W TO CENTRAL FL TONIGHT. THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN ON SUN 
PUSHING REMNANTS OF THE FRONT N OF 31N. A REINFORCING NORTHERLY 
SURGE WILL PUSH THE FRONT S AGAIN AND BACK INTO THE NW WATERS 
LATE SUN NIGHT...WITH THE FRONT REACHING FROM BERMUDA TO THE NW 
BAHAMAS ON MON EVENING. THE EASTERN SEGMENT OF THE FRONT WILL 
CONTINUE E ON TUE REACHING FROM 31N55W TO 28N70W THEN BECOMING A 
WARM FRONT TO NEAR 31N77W. THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT RAPIDLY NE 
ON TUE NIGHT AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE NW WATERS 
REACHING FROM BERMUDA TO THE NW BAHAMAS ON WED NIGHT AND FROM 
31N57W TO HISPANIOLA LATE THU.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...NONE.
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...NONE.
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...GALE WARNING ENDING THIS MORNING.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.