000 AGXX40 KNHC 210651 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 151 AM EST FRI FEB 21 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST EXCEPT NWPS FOR WAVE PARAMETERS WHERE AVAILABLE. MED-HIGH CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFF THE TX COAST PRECEDED BY A PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH ABOUT 90 NM E OF THE FRONT. A SQUALL LINE ALSO PRECEDES THE FRONT BY ABOUT 180 NM...AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY FREQUENT LIGHTNING OVER THE GULF WATERS N OF 28N. SOUTHERLY FLOW AT 20-25 KT AHEAD OF FRONT QUICKLY VEERS TO THE N AT 20-30 KT SEAS TO 9 FT...BUT DIMINISHES TO 15-20 KT BY THIS AFTERNOON... EXCEPT NW-N 20-25 KT WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SW WATERS ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST TILL ABOUT SUNSET. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME STATIONARY FROM NEAR TAMPA BAY TO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE THIS EVENING. THE SOUTHERN SEGMENT OF THE FRONT WILL PERSIST AS A N-S TROUGH OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ON SAT WHILE THE NORTHERN SEGMENT DISSIPATES ALONG 26N. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AT 10 KT SETS UP OVER THE NW GULF EARLY SAT AND SPREADS E ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF BY EARLY SUN. A WEAK COLD FRONT DIPS INTO THE N- CENTRAL WATERS ON SUN NIGHT WITH THE EASTERN SEGMENT OF THE FRONT PASSING E OF THE AREA LATE MON. REMNANTS OF THIS FRONT WILL DISSIPATE ALONG 27N ON MON AND MON NIGHT. A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL DEVELOP JUST W OF TAMPA BAY ON MON NIGHT AND SHIFT SE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF REACHING NEAR THE DRY TORTUGAS LATE TUE NIGHT. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS S A THIRD COLD FRONT WILL MOVE S INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS REACHING FROM THE FL BIG BEND TO SE TX AROUND SUNRISE ON WED. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST EXCEPT NWPS FOR WAVE PARAMETERS WHERE AVAILABLE. MED-HIGH CONFIDENCE. MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS OFF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNRISE ON SAT THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 20-25 KT JUST AFTER SUNRISE ON SUN...THEN PULSE AGAIN TO 30 KT LATE SUN NIGHT. FRESH TRADES WILL CONTINUE ELSEWHERE THROUGH LATE SAT NIGHT WITH MODERATE TRADES EXPECTED E OF 68W AND ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN ON SUN AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE CHANGE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH TUE NIGHT. NE SWELL IS PRODUCING COMBINED SEAS OF 7-10 FT IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...BUT EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO 6-8 FT ON SUN AND LESS THAN 8 FT SUN NIGHT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST EXCEPT NWPS FOR WAVE PARAMETERS WHERE AVAILABLE. MED-HIGH CONFIDENCE. A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR BERMUDA WILL SHIFT NE OF THE AREA TODAY WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO THE CENTRAL FL COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR NW WATERS THIS EVENING THE STALL FROM 31N72W TO NE FL TONIGHT. THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN ON SUN PUSHING REMNANTS OF THE FRONT N OF 31N. A REINFORCING NORTHERLY SURGE WILL PUSH THE FRONT S AGAIN AND BACK INTO THE NW WATERS LATE SUN NIGHT WITH THE FRONT REACHING FROM BERMUDA TO THE NW BAHAMAS ON MON EVENING. THE EASTERN SEGMENT OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE E ON TUE REACHING FROM 31N57W TO 28N65W THEN BECOMING STATIONARY TO 28N73W THEN BECOMING A WARM FRONT TO NEAR 31N80W. THE FRONTAL REMNANTS W OF 55W WILL LIFT RAPIDLY NE ON TUE NIGHT AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE NW WATERS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO SAT. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.