000 AGXX40 KNHC 201946 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 246 PM EST THU FEB 20 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/OFFICIAL AND MWW3 FOR WAVE HEIGHTS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. CURRENT BUOY AND OIL PLATFORMS ARE SHOWING SLY RETURN FLOW OF 15-20 KT W OF 89W...AND SE 10-15 KT WINDS E OF 89W. THE LATEST SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS HAS A HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE ATLC WESTWARD ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN GULF. EARLY MORNING PATCHES OF DENSE FOG WERE OBSERVED ACROSS MUCH OF THE COASTAL PLAINS HAS JUST ABOUT DISSIPATED. THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH THE RIDGE FORECAST TO SLIDE EASTWARD THROUGH THU EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE NEXT COLD FRONT OF THE WINTER SEASON...CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS...TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND SW LOUISIANA COAST TONIGHT. BOTH MOISTURE AND BOUNDARY LAYER WIND GUIDANCE THEN SLOW DOWN THE FRONT ON FRI AS ITS UPPER SUPPORT QUICKLY LIFTS ENE. BY NIGHT...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME STATIONARY FROM VICINITY W CENTRAL FLORIDA TO SW GULF. THE EASTERN SEGMENT OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME DIFFUSE DURING SAT...WHILE ITS REMNANT WESTERN PORTION LIFTS BACK N. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FRONT AND A DOME OF HIGH PRES THAT BUILDS ESE ACROSS THE NW GULF WILL RESULT IN STRONG N TO NE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI...BEFORE DIMINISHING DURING THE DAY FRI. SEAS WILL QUICKLY BUILD TO AROUND 9 FT IN THE FAR NW GULF BEHIND THE FRONT FRI...AND TO 8 FT IN SOME AREAS ELSEWHERE BEHIND THE FRONT. SEAS THEN SUBSIDE BY LATE FRI. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO GALE FORCE CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN WESTERN WATERS. BY LATE SAT...THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF ATLC HIGH PRES WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS...BUT WEAKEN SUN INTO TUE AS A WEAK FRONT DROPS S ACROSS THE N AND CENTRAL WATERS. THIS FRONT WILL SLIDE S SOME WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE ALONG WITH LOW SEAS AS WELL SAT THROUGH TUE. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/OFFICIAL BLEND. FOR WAVE HEIGHTS...MWW3 WAVE PARAMETERS FOR THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND A NWPS/MWW3 BLEND IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC. HIGH CONFIDENCE. ASCAT DATA FROM THIS MORNING SHOWED A SOLIDS SWATH OF NE TO E 30 KT WINDS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR THE COAST COAST COLOMBIA. GIVEN THE LOW BIAS OF ASCAT WIND RETRIEVAL..THERE MOST LIKELY ARE WINDS SPEEDS REACHING MINIMAL GALE FORCE WITH THESE WINDS. WILL MAINTAIN THE GALE WARNING THAT IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR SW PART OF ZONE 31 INTO SAT AS THE CULPRIT STRONG PRES GRADIENT N OF THE AREA WILL BE ONLY SLOWLY SLACKEN THROUGH THE PERIOD. ELSEWHERE...BUOY AND ASCAT DATA DEPICT FRESH TO STRONG NE-E TRADES IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THESE TRADES WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH FRI...THEN DIMINISH IN AREAL COVERAGE SAT THROUGH TUE. USED NWPS WAVE GUIDANCE IN THE CARIBBEAN AS IT INITIALIZED WELL WITH RESPECT TO THE WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE GALE WARNING AREA...AND ALSO LOOKED PRETTY REASONABLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE SEA. A BLEND OF NWPS/MWW3 WAS MOST REASONABLE FOR THE TROPICAL N ATLC. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...NE TO E SWELLS ARE PRODUCING SEAS OF 7-10FT AS SEEN IN THE BUOY DATA...AND RECENT ALTIMETER PASSES WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH SUN. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/OFFICIAL BLEND. FOR WAVE HEIGHTS...A NWPS/MWW3 BLEND. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE MAIN FEATURE PRESENTLY CONTROLLING WIND REGIME THROUGHOUT IS A HIGH PRES RIDGE THAT STRETCHES FROM BERMUDA WSW TO CENTRAL FLORIDA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA NEAR 65W/66W CONTINUES TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 24N-29N E OF 69W. NEAR FUTURE CHANGES TO THE PRESENT PATTERN WILL BE ATTRIBUTED TO THE RIDGE SHIFTING EASTWARD THROUGH FRI. THIS WILL MAKE WAY FOR THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO MOVE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST LATE FRI AFTERNOON. SINCE THE UPPER SUPPORT WILL LIFT NE QUICKLY... THE FRONT WILL HAVE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY PUSH SOUTHWARD SAT AS IT STALLS NEAR THE NW BAHAMAS. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK N ON SUN. A DIP IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM WILL SEND THE FRONT BACK S AS A COLD FRONT ON MON OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS WHILE HIGH PRES BUILDS JUST TO THE N OF THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY NLY 15-20 KT WINDS. THESE WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH ON TUE AS THEY VEER AROUND TO ELY IN DIRECTION WHILE THE FRONT STALLS AGAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS. WEAK LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NE ALONG THE FRONT MON AND TUE OVER THE FAR NW WATERS. THE EXPECTED SHORT DURATION OF THE NLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD NOT ALLOW FOR SEAS TO BUILD HIGHER THAN ABOUT 5 OR 6 FT. SEAS OF 6-8 FT IN THE SE PORTION DUE TO NE AND E SWELLS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO 5 TO 6 FT MON AND TUE. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...GALE WARNING FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W TONIGHT INTO SAT. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.