000 AGXX40 KNHC 191946 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 246 PM EST WED FEB 19 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/OFFICIAL AND MWW3 FOR WAVE HEIGHTS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. CURRENT BUOY AND OIL PLATFORMS ARE SHOWING SLY RETURN FLOW OF 10-15 KT THROUGHOUT JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE GULF...EXCEPT IN THE FAR NE PORTION WHERE LIGHTER SE-S 5-10 KT WINDS ARE OBSERVED. THE LATEST SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS HAS A HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE ATLC WESTWARD ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN GULF. EARLY MORNING PATCHES OF DENSE FOG OBSERVED ACROSS MUCH OF THE COASTAL PLAINS HAS JUST ABOUT DISSIPATED. THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH THE RIDGE FORECAST TO SLIDE EASTWARD THROUGH THU EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE NEXT COLD FRONT OF THE WINTER SEASON...CURRENTLY MAKING HEADWAY ACROSS NE TEXAS...TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND SW LOUISIANA COAST THU NIGHT. GUIDANCE THEN SLOWS DOWN THE FRONT LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS ITS UPPER SUPPORT QUICKLY LIFTS ENE. BY LATE FRI NIGHT...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME STATIONARY FROM VICINITY W CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 26N90W AND TO SOUTHERN TEXAS. THE EASTERN SEGMENT OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME DIFFUSE DURING SAT...WHILE ITS REMNANT WESTERN PORTION LIFTS BACK N. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FRONT AND A DOME OF HIGH PRES THAT BUILDS ESE ACROSS THE NW GULF WILL RESULT IN STRONG N TO NE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI...BEFORE DIMINISHING DURING THE DAY FRI. SEAS WILL QUICKLY BUILD TO AROUND 9 OR 10 FT IN THE FAR NW GULF BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI...AND TO 8 FT IN SOME AREAS ELSEWHERE BEHIND THE FRONT. SEAS THEN SUBSIDE BY LATE FRI. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO GALE FORCE CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN WESTERN WATERS. BY LATE SAT...THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF ATLC HIGH PRES WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS...BUT WEAKEN SUN AND MON AS A WEAK FRONT DROPS S ACROSS THE FAR NW AND N CENTRAL WATERS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE ALONG WITH LOW SEAS AS WELL SAT THROUGH MON. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/OFFICIAL AND NWPS WAVE PARAMETERS FOR WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE CARIBBEAN WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. ASCAT DATA FROM LAST NIGHT ALONG WITH A COUPLE OF SHIP OBSERVATIONS CONFIRMED THAT GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING ALONG AND NEAR THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA. SO A GALE WARNING IS CURRENTLY VALID FOR THOSE WATERS THROUGH FRI. THESE WINDS ARE BEING TRIGGERED BY STRONG HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA. ELSEWHERE...BUOY AND ASCAT DATA DEPICT FRESH TO STRONG NE-E TRADES IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THESE TRADES WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH FRI...THEN DIMINISH IN AREAL COVERAGE SAT THROUGH MON. USED NWPS WAVE GUIDANCE IN THE CARIBBEAN AS IT INITIALIZED WELL WITH RESPECT TO THE WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE GALE WARNING AREA...AND ALSO LOOKED PRETTY REASONABLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE SEA. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...LONG PERIOD NE TO E SWELLS ARE PRODUCING SEAS OF 7-9 FT WITH A FEW SMALL POCKET OF 8-10 FT SEAS AS SEEN IN THE BUOY DATA...AND EARLIER ALTIMETER PASSES. THESE SWELLS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/OFFICIAL BLEND AND MWW3 FOR WAVE HEIGHTS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE MAIN FEATURE PRESENTLY CONTROLLING WIND REGIME THROUGHOUT IS A HIGH PRES RIDGE THAT STRETCHES FROM BERMUDA WSW TO NE FLORIDA. THE WESTERN PART OF A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA ALONG 26N E OF 69W. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROUGH IS AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALONG AND WITHIN 60-75 NM OF THE FRONT. NEAR FUTURE CHANGES TO THE PRESENT PATTERN WILL BE ATTRIBUTED TO THE RIDGE SHIFTING EASTWARD THROUGH FRI. THIS MAKE WAY FOR THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO MOVE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST LATE FRI. SINCE THE UPPER SUPPORT WILL LIFT NE QUICKLY...THE FRONT WILL HAVE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY PUSH SOUTHWARD SAT AND SUN...AND WILL HANG UP OVER THE FAR NW WATERS AS HIGH PRES BUILDS EASTWARD OVER THE EASTERN U.S. A DIP IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM WILL SEND A SLIGHTER STRONGER COLD FRONT S ACROSS THE NORTHER WATERS ON MON. THIS FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY NLY 15-20 KT WINDS...HOWEVER THE EXPECTED SHORT DURATION OF THESE WINDS SHOULD NOT ALLOW FOR SEAS TO BUILD HIGHER THAN ABOUT 5 OR 6 FT. SEAS OF 6-8 FT IN THE SE PORTION DUE TO MIXED LONG PERIOD NE AND E SWELLS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO 7 FT BY MON. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO FRI. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.