000 AGXX40 KNHC 180757 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 257 AM EST TUE FEB 18 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS THROUGH DAY 2 THEN GFS-ECMWF BLEND WEAK RIDGE PERSISTS ACROSS BASIN THIS MORNING FROM FL BIG BEND W ALONG 28N INTO NW PORTIONS...AND IS SEPARATING FROM ATLC RIDGE AS SECONDARY FRONTAL SYSTEM SWEEPS E ACROSS N CENTRAL ATLC. RECENT ASCAT PASS SHOWS ELY WINDS 20 KT THROUGH STRAITS OF FL WHERE SEAS ARE LIKELY AROUND 5 FT AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER AGAINST CURRENT. OTHERWISE...MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 1 FT OR LESS NE PORTIONS TO 2-4 FT ELSEWHERE. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH LATE WED BEFORE FRONTAL SYSTEM ENTERS NW TEXAS EARLY THU...WITH RIDGE RETREATING EWD AND PRES GRADIENT INCREASING TO YIELD SE TO S WINDS 15-20 KT ACROSS MUCH OF BASIN W OF 85W...WITH SMALL POCKETS TO 25 KT LIKELY. GFS HAS CONSISTENTLY BEEN FASTER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THIS FRONT TO TEXAS COAST AND INTO NW GULF...BUT MODELS IN SOMEWHAT CLOSER AGREEMENT ATTM...AND HAVE USED A GFS-ECMWF COMPROMISE FRI-SAT. WITH THAT IN MIND...FCST IS FOR FRONT TO REACH TEXAS COAST AROUND 06Z FRI THEN PUSH SE INTO BASIN AND REACH FROM NEAR FL-AL BORDER TO TAMPICO BY 12Z FRI THEN STALL FROM FL BIG BEND TO WRN BAY OF CAMPECHE AROUND 00Z SAT. N TO NE WINDS 20-30 KT EXPECTED BEHIND FRONT EARLY FRI AND NW TO N 20-25 KT SPILLING DOWN MEXICAN COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. STILL NO GEFS PROBS OF GALES ATTM AND DETERMINISTIC 00Z GFS RUN NO LONGER INDICATING GALES IN PBL...GIVING ME SLIGHTLY HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAN IN RECENT DAYS. MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO 00Z WW3-NWPS BLEND TO ACCOUNT FOR DYNAMIC FETCH BEHIND FRONT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS SW TAIL OF ATLC FRONT NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS EXTREME SE BAHAMAS AND INTO FAR E CUBA...AND IS TRANSITIONING TO SHEARLINE. RECENT SCAT PASSES SHOW NE WINDS 20-25 THROUGH WINDWARD PASSAGE AND 15-20 KT IN LEE OF CUBA TO ABOUT 80W. HIGH PRES SHIFTING E INTO NW ATLC AIDING IN PROMOTING THIS FRESH TO STRONG FLOW N OF SHEARLINE...AND WILL EXPAND FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ACROSS S CENTRAL CARIB NWD TO 17N TODAY. NOCTURNAL MAX OFF COLOMBIA WILL APPROACH MINIMAL GALE FOR A FEW HOURS EACH OF THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS. WE HAVE HAD ALTIMETER PASSES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THIS WIND MAX THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS WHICH SUGGEST MAX SEAS VERY CLOSE TO COAST...AND DISPLACED ABOUT 1 DEG E-SE OF WW3 POSITION...WHILE NWPS BETTER IN CAPTURING THIS HIGHER RES DETAIL. ATLC RIDGE TO SHIFT ENE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN ATTEMPT TO BUILD SW AND UNDERNEATH NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM TO COME OFF MID ATLC STATES...AND INCREASE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS AND E CARIB BRINGING 20-25 KT TRADES WWD TO NEAR 55W AND 20 KT ACROSS MUCH OF ERN CARIB. WINDS TO BACK OFF SLIGHTLY LATE THU AS FRONT SWEEPS E ACROSS NE PORTIONS OF ATLC WATERS...THEN RESTRENGTHEN THU NIGHT- FRI AS NEXT HIGH SHIFTS E INTO NW ATLC...AND RIDGE BUILDS SW ACROSS FL AND INTO ERN GULF. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF BLEND COLD FRONT SLOWING PROGRESS ACROSS CENTRAL ATLC...NOW EXTENDING FROM NEAR 31N52W TO NEAR 25N64W THEN TRANSITIONING TO SHEARLINE ACROSS EXTREME SE BAHAMAS AND GREAT INAGUA TO E CUBA. RECENT SCAT PASSES SHOWING HORIZONTAL SHEAR ACROSS BOUNDARY W OF 65W...WITH NE WINDS 20 TO NEAR 25 KT THROUGH BAHAMAS AND THROUGH WINDWARD PASSAGE. EXPECT ENE WINDS 20G25 KT WITHIN ABOUT 120 NM NW OF SHEARLINE AND SEAS 7-8 FT THROUGH EARLY WED BEFORE FLOW VEERS MORE ELY AND BOUNDARY WASHES OUT. PULSE OF NW SWELL GENERATED BEHIND FRONT OVER WEEKEND HAS MOVED THROUGH SE PORTIONS AND NOW ENTERING N PORTIONS TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS...AND MIXING WITH ENE TRADE WINDS SWELL AT 10 SECS TO PRODUCE SEAS 9-10 FT N OF 17N. AS ROUGHLY DESCRIBED ABOVE...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRUSH N PORTIONS THU TO BRIEFLY WEAKENING THEN STRENGTHENING TRADES S OF 24N. HIGH PRES SHIFTING E INTO NW ATLC BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY THU WILL OPEN UP FLOW ACROSS FL AND GULF OF MEXICO TO PRODUCE MODERATE TO FRESH SE TO S WINDS ACROSS W PORTIONS LATE THU AND FRI WITH NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO BECOME STRUNG OUT ALONG GA-SC COASTAL WATERS SAT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.