000 AGXX40 KNHC 171805 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST MON FEB 17 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST...EXCEPT ECMWF BLENDED BEYOND THU. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST EXCEPT NWPS WHERE AVAILABLE. MED- HIGH CONFIDENCE. 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 29N82W. A RIDGE EXTENDS SW-W FROM THE HIGH TO THE W CENTRAL GULF. MAINLY MODERATE SE-S WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF...EXCEPT LIGHT IN THE NE GULF CLOSEST TO THE HIGH CENTER...ALONG WITH 1-3 FT SEAS ACROSS THE NE HALF OF THE GULF...AND 2-4 FT ACROSS THE REMAINDER. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RATHER TRANQUIL THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE WEEK. RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO MODERATE TO FRESH LEVELS BASIN WIDE WED NIGHT THROUGH THU AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THAT FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS LATE THU NIGHT...REACHING FROM FL PANHANDLE TO THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE FRI WHERE IT WILL STALL. THE FRONT WILL THEN MOVE BACK TO THE NW AS A WARM FRONT EARLY SAT...THEN A REINFORCING PUSH MAY SHIFT IT EASTWARD AS A COLD FRONT AGAIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. AT LEAST FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND 6-9 FT SEAS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT ALTHOUGH THE GFS DOES INDICATE WINDS UP TO 30 KT ALONG THE NE COAST OF MEXICO. CURRENTLY THE GEFS 34 KT PROBABILITIES ARE 0 PERCENT (SREF OUTPUT DOES NOT EXTEND BEYOND 87 HOURS). ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST EXCEPT NWPS WHERE AVAILABLE. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE NW CARIBBEAN HAVE FADED. WEAK RIDGING IS NE OF THE AREA EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL ATLC HIGH PRESSURE. THE COMBINATION OF THIS RIDGING WITH THE COLOMBIAN LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...AND UP TO 30 KT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN AND THE TROPICAL N ATLC THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. FOR SEAS... 3-5 FT ARE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN...4-7 FT IN THE E CARIBBEAN...WITH 5-8 FT IN THE N CENTRAL AND 8-12 FT IN THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHERE THE WINDS ARE THE STRONGEST. LITTLE CHANGE IN THESE CONDITIONS IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD ALTHOUGH FRESH TRADES AND SEAS UP TO 8 FT WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD IN THE E CARIBBEAN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS CENTRAL ATLC HIGH PRESSURE AND THE ASSOCIATED RIDGING STRENGTHEN. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST EXCEPT NWPS WHERE AVAILABLE. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N57W TO 24N68W THEN IS BECOMING STATIONARY AS IT REACHES TO 22N72W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS CONTINUE TO KICK OFF WITHIN 75 NM OF THE FRONT. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE DRAMATICALLY DIMINISHED TO LIGHT TO MODERATE LEVELS WHILE ASSOCIATED NW SWELL OF 7-10 FT REMAINS ACROSS THE WATERS E OF 70W...WITH SUBSIDING CONDITIONS AND 3-6 FT SEAS W OF 70W (EXCEPT 1-3 FT INSIDE THE BAHAMAS). THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD WHILE WEAKENING WITH THE SOUTHERN PORTION LOSING DEFINITION LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST THROUGH MID-WEEK WHILE REMAINING N OF 31N. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY REACHING INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA MAY CLIP THE WATERS N OF 30N IN AMZ111 TUE WITH ATLC RIDGING DOMINATING ALONG 30N/31N WED. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BREACH THE WATERS N OF 29N/30N LATE WED INTO THU WITH YET ANOTHER MOVING INTO THE FAR NW PORTION LATE FRI INTO SAT WHERE IT WILL STALL INTO NEXT SUN AS THE ATLC RIDGING STRENGTHENS. MAINLY MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS AND 4-7 FT SEAS WILL PREVAIL N OF 22N OUTSIDE OF THE BAHAMAS WITH MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND 6-9 FT SEAS S OF 22N...LOCALLY STRONG NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. INSIDE THE BAHAMAS...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE-E WINDS WILL VEER TO THE E-SE THU THROUGH SAT. SEAS OF 1-3 FT WILL BUILD TO 2-4 FT AS THE WINDS VEER WITH THE ADDED COMPONENT OF SOME E-SE SWELLS MANAGING TO SNEAK INTO THE AREA. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.