000 AGXX40 KNHC 170837 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 337 AM EST MON FEB 17 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF CONSENSUS THROUGH DAY 3 THEN GEFS MEAN THROUGH DAY 6 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED ACROSS FL BIG BEND COASTAL WATERS WITH RIDGE SW INTO SW GULF THIS MORNING. MODERATE RETURN FLOW PREVAILING ACROSS NW QUARTER N OF 23N W OF 90W...WITH PEAK SEAS ONLY TO 3 FT ACROSS TEXAS COASTAL WATERS ATTM. LITTLE CHANGE IN GUIDANCE THROUGH MID WEEK WITH HIGH SHIFTING NE BUT RIDGING REMAINING AND YIELDING MODERATE RETURN FLOW W AND NW PORTIONS. GRADIENT TO INCREASE W HALF WED NIGHT THROUGH THU AS DEEP LAYERED LOW AND FRONTAL SYSTEM SHIFTS E ACROSS SRN ROCKIES AND ENHANCES RETURN FLOW TO 20-25 KT W O 90W THROUGH THU AFTERNOON. LOW TO LIFTS NE INTO OHIO VALLEY AND DRAG COLD FRONT INTO TEXAS LATE THU...WITH FRONT REACHING TEXAS COAST THU NIGHT. GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME IN AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND IN GENERAL STRENGTH OF THIS FRONT...WITH UKMET 6-12 HOURS SLOWER. ENSEMBLE MEANS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND TODAY HAVE BETTER CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO. GFS-ECMWF SHOWING FRONT MOVING INTO NW GULF FRI WITH N-NE WINDS 25-30 KT BEHIND IT. GFS AND ECMWF THEN DIVERGE FRI AS FRONT PUSHES S AND RACES S ALONG MEXICAN COAST...WITH GFS SUGGESTING SMALL AREA OF GALES AS FRONT RACES S...AND ECMWF SHOWING WEAKER HIGH RIDGING INTO ERN MEXICO. ATTM HAVE BLENDED IN SUFFICIENT ECMWF TO HOLD NLY WINDS TO 20-25 KT SPILLING DOWN MEXICAN COAST. OTHERWISE...ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TO PREVAIL ACROSS BASIN WITH PULSING LATE AFTERNOON-EVENING WIND MAX TO AROUND 20 KT EACH DAY THROUGH THU. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS. MWW3-NWPS BLEND CARIB WATERS. FRONTAL REMNANTS LINGERING FROM ERN TIP OF CUBA TO SE PORTIONS OF GULF OF HONDURAS...WITH LIGHTNING DETECTED IN SHALLOW CNVTN ALONG NE COAST OF CUBA. 0246Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED NE WINDS 20 KT IN LEE OF CUBA NW OF BOUNDARY AND 15-20 INTO GULF OF HONDURAS. HAS THUS ADJUSTED INITIAL CONDITIONS IN WINDS AND SEAS TO MATCH THIS. GULF RIDGE EXTENDS ESE INTO SW N ATLC TO NEAR 27N69W AND INDUCING MODEST PRES GRADIENT ACROSS S CENTRAL CARIB FOR STRONG TRADES S OF 14N...WITH 0158Z ASCAT PASS SHOWING HANDFUL OF 30 KT WIND VECTORS ALONG COLOMBIAN COAST...WHERE RECENT ALTIMETER PASS SHOWED SEAS 10-11 FT. ATLC FRONT TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY SE NEXT 72 HOURS AND GRADUALLY LAY DOWN MORE ENE TO WSW BY WED. AS GULF HIGH AND ASSOCIATED RIDGE SHIFTS NE NEXT FEW DAYS...GRADIENT ACROSS CARIB WILL INCREASE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR FRESH TO STRONG TRADES TO EXPAND NWD ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS TO 17N THROUGH REST OF WEEK...WITH 25 KT ENE WIND MAX PULSING OFFSHORE OF BARAHONA PENINSULA AND S COASTAL WATERS OF HISPANIOLA. ACROSS TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS...RETREATING E CENTRAL ATLC HIGH WILL SHIFT STRONG TRADES E OF 45W NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH WINDS THERE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TO AROUND 20 KT BY TUE. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY PEAKING AT 8-10 FT IN ENE WIND SWELL OF 10 SECS ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY THROUGH THIS EVENING...ONLY TO BEGIN MIXING WITH NW SWELL FROM ATLC FRONT TONIGHT THROUGH TUE TO MAINTAIN 8-10 FT SEAS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS FRONT IS BECOMING STATIONARY FROM NEAR 26N65W TO ERN CUBA...WITH SCT RW/ISOLD TRW ALONG BOUNDARY AS WELL AS NE COAST OF CUBA. NW SWELL HAS OUTRUN FRONT AND WILL ENTER SE PORTIONS NEXT 6-12 HOURS AND PEAK TONIGHT. WW3 AND ECWAVE RUNNING 0.5-1 FT LOW WITH THIS BRIEF PULSE OF SWELL BASED ON RECENT BUOY AND ALTIMETER DATA 60W- 70W. EXPECT NW SWELL TO HIT N COASTS OF NE CARIB ISLANDS BY 18Z AT 14 SECS AND LIKELY SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN WW3 FORECAST. AS RIDGE SHIFTS NE NEXT 36-48 HOURS...GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ALONG REMNANTS OF NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND EFFECT A WEAK SHEARLINE...WITH ENE WINDS 20 KT PERSISTING WITHIN ABOUT 120 NM N OF SHEARLINE THROUGH WED. FLOW ACROSS REGION TO GRADUALLY VEER ELY BY WED WITH FRESH TRADES ACROSS S AND SE PORTIONS S OF 23N. HIGH PRES TO SHIFT INTO W ATLC THU BEHIND NW ATLC FRONTAL SYSTEM AND FRESHEN TRADES ACROSS REGION S OF 24N AND ACROSS ENTIRE E CARIB AND TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS...WITH HIGH OPENING UP SE TO S FLOW INTO FL AND W PORTIONS THU AND FRI. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.