000
AGXX40 KNHC 161757
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1257 PM EST SUN FEB 16 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...
MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST 
EXCEPT NWPS WHERE AVAILABLE. MED-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED AT 27N85W WILL SHIFT NE OF AREA TONIGHT 
WITH A RIDGE CONTINUING SW ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE 
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. ANTICYCLONIC 5-10 KT WINDS SURROUND THE 
HIGH CENTER ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF AT SUNRISE THIS MORNING. THE 
SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15-20 KT OVER...AND TO 
THE S OF THE TX COASTAL BEND BY THIS EVENING...AND CONTINUE 
THROUGH MID MORNING ON MON. THE GRADIENT WILL THEN RELAX 
SUPPORTING 10-15 KT ACROSS ALL WATERS W OF 94W THROUGH LATE TUE 
NIGHT...THEN INCREASE ON WED AND THU SUPPORTING 15-20 KT AGAIN. 
THE EVENING INCREASE OF 15-20 KT WINDS NEAR THE NW YUCATAN 
PENINSULA WILL BEGIN THIS EVENING...AND REPEAT AGAIN EACH 
EVENING THROUGH WED. EXPECT SE-S 15-20 KT ACROSS ENTIRE GULF ON 
THU NIGHT AND FRI EXCEPT 20-25 KT VICINITY WESTERN YUCATAN 
PENINSULA.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 
55W AND 65W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL 
FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST 
EXCEPT NWPS WHERE AVAILABLE. MED-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THE REMNANTS OF THE MERGED FRONTS STILL PERSIST AS SCT/BKN LOW-
MID LAYERS CLOUDS EXTENDING FROM HAITI TO N-CENTRAL HONDURAS.
THE FEATURE HAS BEEN FINALLY DROPPED FROM THE SURFACE ANALYSIS.
HOWEVER NE 15-20 KT FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN
THROUGH EARLY WED MORNING. A CENTRAL ATLC RIDGE IS MAINTAINING
ANTICYCLONIC 15-20 KT FLOW ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA E OF 70W
THROUGH EARLY TUE. STRONG NE-E FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
S-CENTRAL WATERS WITH NEAR GALE CONDITIONS WITHIN ABOUT 90 NM
OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...ESPECIALLY DURING LATE NIGHT HOURS.
SEAS EXPECTED TO MAX AT 13 FT AROUND SUNRISE EACH MORNING.
THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ACROSS THE N-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN 
ON TUE THROUGH THU SUPPORTING NE-E 20-25 KT. 

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL 
FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST 
EXCEPT NWPS WHERE AVAILABLE. MED CONFIDENCE.

THE STATIONARY FRONT FROM NEAR 31N61W TO E CUBA IS NOW ANALYZED 
AS A TROUGH...BUT STILL HAS ENOUGH UPPER SUPPORT TO KICK OFF 
CONVECTION N OF 27N ALONG THE BOUNDARY. A COLD FRONT IS RAPIDLY 
APPROACHING THIS TROUGH AND EXTENDED FROM BERMUDA TO ACROSS 
NASSAU THIS MORNING. THE WESTERN END OF THIS FRONT IS 
ACCOMPANIED BY ONLY A NNE-NE 5-10 KT WIND SHIFT...AND THUS WILL 
BE DEPICTED AS DISSIPATING ON THE SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS 
AFTERNOON.  
   
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MERGE WITH THE TROUGH TONIGHT WITH THIS 
MERGED BOUNDARY BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY AND WEAKENING FROM 
28N55W TO 22N61W ON MON NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN WAKE OF 
COLD FRONT WILL SET UP LIGHT SLY FLOW N OF THE BAHAMAS ON 
MON...TURNING SW AND INCREASING SOME ON MON NIGHT N OF A RIDGE 
AXIS ANCHORING FROM BERMUDA TO CENTRAL FLORIDA. LITTLE CHANGE 
THEN EXPECTED THROUGH LATE WED WHEN THE WESTERN SEGMENT OF THE 
RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT N REACHING ALONG 31N ON THU NIGHT. THE 
GRADIENT TIGHTENS S OF THE RIDGE WITH NE FLOW AT 15-20 KT BY 
LATE MON...VEERING TO NE-E AT 15-20 KT THROUGH MID WEEK...EXCEPT 
ENE AT 20-25 KT ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA AND THE N 
APPROACH TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE LATE WED THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON.  

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...NONE.
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...NONE.
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.