000 AGXX40 KNHC 160829 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 329 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS COLD FRONT HAS SLOWED ACROSS SE GULF AND NOW ACROSS STRAITS OF FL...AND REMAINS BENIGN WITH NO PRECIP. N TO NE WINDS 10-15 KT WITH AND BEHIND FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH MODEST SEAS SWD ACROSS SE PORTIONS OVERNIGHT INTO SUN MORNING AT AROUND 4 FT BEFORE SUBSIDING DURING THE DAY. HIGH CENTER HAS BECOME PARKED ACROSS FAR NE PORTIONS AND WILL REMAIN QUASI STATIONARY THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE COLLAPSING...WHILE WEAK RIDGING REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS NE PORTIONS THROUGH MID WEEK. SLY RETURN FLOW CURRENTLY ADVECTING VERY SHALLOW AND LIMITED MOISTURE INTO TEXAS AND EXTREME SW LA...WHERE FOG IS BEING REPORTED ALONG COAST AND COASTAL WATERS. HOWEVER...MOISTURE IS TOO LIMITED FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. SLY RETURN FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS W AND NW PORTIONS THROUGH WED BEFORE STRENGTHENING THU AND FRI. GFS INDICATING WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 ALONG S TEXAS COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MON AFTERNOON...WHERE SEAS WILL BUILD LOCALLY 5-6 FT. OTHERWISE...RIDGE TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MID WEEK WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATING...AND LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE IN RETURN FLOW THROUGH WED. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS FRONTAL REMNANT EVIDENT IN STLT IMAGERY ACROSS NW PORTIONS IN THE FORM OF SHALLOW CU AND IS BEST DEPICTED AS WEAK SHEARLINE...WITH NELY FLOW 15 KT ACROSS MUCH OF NW ZONES AND INTO GULF OF HONDURAS...WHERE SEAS WILL BUILD TO 4-5 FT THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE MODEST PRES GRADIENT YIELDING E TO NE WINDS 20-25 KT S OF 14.5N BETWEEN 69W AND 78W PER RECENT SCAT PASSES. HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER FAR NE GULF WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY INTO BASIN FROM THE NW TODAY AS PAIR OF ATLC FRONTS SWEEP SE AND NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE BY 48 HOURS...AND INCREASE PRES GRADIENT MODESTLY. THIS TO ALLOW FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E TRADES ACROSS S CENTRAL PORTIONS TO PULSE TO 30 KT EACH NIGHT DURING NOCTURNAL MAX...WITH CHANCE FOR BRIEF PERIOD NEAR GALE TONIGHT AROUND 06Z. AT THIS TIME WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE GALE WARNING FOR A SHORT LIVED EVENT. MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO ENE FLOW EXPECTED TO PREVAIL W AND NW PORTIONS DURING THIS TIME. E ATLC RIDGE TO BE NUDGED EWD NEXT 48 HOURS AS FRONTAL BOUNDARIES NEARLY MERGE AND MOVE SE INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS...INDUCING MODEST WEAKENING OF TRADES ACROSS TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS AND TO LESSER DEGREE E CARIB. ENE TRADE WIND SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH SEAS REMAINING 8-10 FT...WHILE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL GENERATED BEHIND ATLC COLD FRONT WILL REACH NE CARIB PASSAGES LATE MON AND TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS MON NIGHT AND TUE. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS STLT IMAGERY THIS MORNING CLEARLY INDICATES SECONDARY FRONT IN THE FORM OF A FINE LINE-ROPE CLOUD...SINKING SSE THROUGH NW BAHAMAS AND BECOMING DIFFUSE THROUGH STRAITS OF FL. STATIONARY FRONT AHEAD OF IT HAS BEGUN TO SHIFT SE AND MOVING INTO ERN CUBA...WHERE RENEWED LLVL CONVERGENCE IS INDUCING ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCT TSTMS ALONG BOUNDARY. GALES BEHIND FRONT HAVE LIFTED N OF FORECAST AREA AND WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY DURING THE DAY AS UPPER VORTEX LIFTS FURTHER NE OUT OF THE REGION. A 0445Z JASON-2 ALTIMETER PASS SHOWED NW SWELL QUICKLY APPROACHING ELEUTHERA AND CAT ISLANDS IN THE NW BAHAMAS WHERE SEAS WERE 8-9 FT. WW3 AND ECWAVE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM WITH THIS SWELL EVENT...AND A BLEND YIELDS SIMILAR RESULTS. PEAK SEAS 12-18 FT WILL SHIFT ESE ACROSS NE PORTIONS TODAY AND EXIT AREA TO THE E AND NE TONIGHT...WITH PEAK IN NW SWELL REACHING SE PORTIONS AND NE CARIB ISLANDS MON. WW3 CONTINUES TO HAVE PARTITIONING ISSUES WITH THIS EVENT PER SPECTRAL OUTPUT. FRONTS TO EFFECTIVELY MERGE 36-48 HRS...WHERE FRONTAL REMNANT WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY FROM 25N65W TO ALONG E TIP OF CUBA BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE MON NIGHT INTO TUE. NELY FLOW 15-20 KT WILL PREVAIL WITHIN ABOUT 180 NM NW OF DISSIPATING FRONT/SHEARLINE MON AND TUE...OTHERWISE LIGHT TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TO PREVAIL NOW OF BOUNDARIES WITH GRADUALLY SUBSIDING SEAS MON THROUGH TUE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM TO MOVE OFF E COAST WED WITH RIDGING EXTENDING SW INTO AREA UNDERNEATH FRONT AND BRING A RETURN TO MODERATE ELY TRADES S OF 24N LATE WED THROUGH THU...EXCEPT AROUND 20 KT S OF 22N. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU NIGHT INTO FRI. GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO MON. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.