000
AGXX40 KNHC 152104
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
404 PM EST SAT FEB 15 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST 
EXCEPT NWPS WHERE AVAILABLE. MED-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FL STRAITS THIS EVENING
WITH THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FRONT STALLING OVER THE W-CENTRAL
WATERS AND WASHING OUT AS SLY RETURN FLOW SETS UP LATE TONIGHT INTO 
SUN.  THE SLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT ALONG TX COASTAL 
BEND LATE SUN NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MON MORNING. THE 
EVENING INCREASE OF 15-20 KT WINDS NEAR THE NW YUCATAN PENINSULA 
WILL BEGIN SUN EVENING THROUGH WED EVENING. THE GRADIENT WILL 
INCREASE WED NIGHT WITH 20-25 KT SE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF W AT 
SUNRISE ON THU. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 
55W AND 65W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL 
FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST 
EXCEPT NWPS WHERE AVAILABLE. MED-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TWO FRONTS ARE MERGING INTO A BROAD A FRONTAL TROUGH FROM 
CENTRAL CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS BUT LACKING SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LOSE IDENTITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND 
WITH NE FLOW INCREASING TO 15-20 KT OVER THE NW WATERS LATE SUN 
NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUE. THE SW PERIPHERY OF A CENTRAL 
ATLC RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TROPICAL WATERS AND 
ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN WATERS WITH ANTICYCLONIC 15-20 KT FLOW 
ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA E OF 70W. STRONG NE-E FLOW WILL 
CONTINUE OVER THE S-CENTRAL WATERS WITH NEAR GALE CONDITIONS 
WITHIN ABOUT 90 NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA ESPECIALLY LATE 
NIGHTS. SEAS EXPECTED TO MAX AT 13 FT AROUND SUNRISE EACH 
MORNING.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL 
FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST 
EXCEPT NWPS WHERE AVAILABLE. MED CONFIDENCE.

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM ROUGHLY BERMUDA TO CENTRAL CUBA. 
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS CONTINUE TO FLARE WITHIN 180 NM OF THE 
STATIONARY FRONT...BUT ONLY A SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE 
CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS JUST OFF THE SE GA/NE 
FL COAST WITH GALE CONDITIONS FORECAST N OF 28N EITHER SIDE OF 
FRONT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THIS STRONG FRONT WILL ALSO MERGE 
WITH THE MERGED BOUNDARY FURTHER E BY LATE SUN AS ASSOCIATED 
WINDS QUICKLY DIMINISH BELOW 25 KT SUN AFTERNOON. THE LARGE NW 
SWELLS WILL PROPAGATE SE ACROSS THE WATERS E OF THE BAHAMIAN 
CHAIN REACHING THE NE CARIBBEAN PASSAGE ON MON. WEAK HIGH 
PRESSURE IN WAKE OF FRONT WILL SET UP LIGHT SLY FLOW N OF THE 
BAHAMAS ON MON...TURNING SW AND INCREASING SOME ON MON NIGHT AS 
THE RIDGE ANCHORS FROM BERMUDA TO CENTRAL FLORIDA. WITH LITTLE 
CHANGE THROUGH EARLY THU. THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS S OF THE RIDGE 
WITH NE FLOW AT 15-20 KT BY LATE MON...BECOMING NE-E 15-20 KT 
THROUGH MID WEEK...EXCEPT ELY 20-25 KT WINDS DEVELOPING ALONG 
THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA AND THE N APPROACH TO THE WINDWARD 
PASSAGE ON THU.    

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...NONE.
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...NONE.
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.