000 AGXX40 KNHC 150831 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 331 AM EST SAT FEB 15 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF CONSENSUS STRONG S/W SWEEPING SE THROUGH ERN U.S. UPPER TROF AND NOW MOVING ACROSS GA AND SE AL...AND DRAGGING COLD FRONT INTO NRN COASTAL WATERS FROM FL PANHANDLE TO NEAR BRO. W-SW WINDS S OF FRONT REACHING AROUND 25 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS SWD TO NEAR 28N ACROSS NE PORTIONS...WITH BUOY 42039 NOW UP TO 7 FT. MODELS SUGGEST BRIEF CHANCE FOR NEAR GALES ALONG AND S OF FRONT NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS FL PANHANDLE COASTAL WATERS BEFORE LLVL JET SHIFTS NE INTO N FL...GA...AND SC COASTAL WATERS AND SFC LOW BEGINS TO DEEPEN ALONG THE SE U.S. COAST. FRONT EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM NEAR 30N82W TO 28N84W TO NEAR BRO BY 12Z THIS MORNING THEN BEGIN TO DISSIPATE FROM STRAITS OF FL TO NEAR 24N89W OVERNIGHT. WINDS FORECAST TO DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON AS SUPPORTING ENERGY LIFTS OUT TO NE...WITH NW FETCH ACROSS E PORTIONS PUSHING WIND SWELL SE INTO FAR SE WATERS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE FADING. HIGH PRES RIDGE THEN FCST TO RESIDE ACROSS E PORTIONS THROUGH SUN EVENING YIELDING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH RETURN FLOW ACROSS W AND NW PART BEFORE RIDGE SHIFT E ALONG E COAST OF U.S. SSW ACROSS FL MON AND TUE. WOULD EXPECT WW3 TO BE SLIGHTLY LOW DURING THIS EXTENDED PERIOD OF RETURN FLOW. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS BARELY EVIDENT ACROSS NW PORTIONS THIS MORNING...EXTENDING FROM W CENTRAL CUBA TO GULF OF HONDURAS...BUT IS CLEARLY DEFINED IN TPW IMAGERY...AND NEAR 11F DEW POINT SPREAD BETWEEN BUOYS 42057 AND 42056. FRESH TRADES ARE CONFINED TO S CENTRAL CARIB BETWEEN 67W AND 77W AND WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY WWD TO MORE TYPICAL LOCATION NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS FRONT IN GULF SWEEPS SE INTO SW N ATLC. THIS WILL REINFORCE COOLER DRIER AIR ACROSS NW PORTIONS BUT MODELS DO NOT INDICATE ANY SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARY TO THE SW OF CUBA. FRONT TO STALL ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA MON NIGHT INTO TUE WITH WIND GRADUALLY VEERING TO ENE ACROSS NW AND N CENTRAL PORTIONS. WITH MODEST HIGH PRES RIDGE SHIFT INTO E GULF BEHIND FRONT...EXPECT SUFFICIENT PRES GRADIENT ACROSS W PART OF BASIN TO YIELD NOCTURNAL MAX OF 30 KT OFF COAST OF COLOMBIA EACH OF THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS...POSSIBLY BRIEFLY REACHING GALES EARLY SUN. E ATLC RIDGE MAINTAINING ZONE OF FRESH NE TRADES AND WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE MODERATE ENE SWELL INTO TROPICAL N ATLC ZONES NEXT FEW DAYS...WHILE RIDGE IS NUDGED EWD BY SUN AS DEEP LOW MOVES NE ACROSS NW ATLC AND INTO N CENTRAL ATLC. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF CONSENSUS FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS STALLED AND APPEARS TO BE DRIFTING NW AND WEAK WARM FRONT ACROSS NE PORTIONS...EXTENDING FROM NEAR 31N69W THROUGH CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND W CENTRAL CUBA. VIGOROUS SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS SE U.S. TO DRAG FRONT INTO FAR NW WATERS SHORTLY AFTER 12Z WITH SW GALES DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD OF FRONT DURING NEXT FEW HOURS AND THEN ON BOTH SIDES OF FRONT AS IT MOVES SE TODAY. NO CHANGE IN RECENT FORECAST REASONING AND HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND WINDS NEAR GFS 30M WINDS...YIELDING PEAK WINDS ALONG 31N AT 40-45 KT THIS AFTERNOON...AND SEAS 12-18 FT BEHIND FRONT INCREASING TO 12-20 FT BY 00Z. TAFB NWPS SHOULD YIELD IMPROVED SWH FCST THAN WW3 USING GFS 10M WINDS...AND HAVE BLENDED THIS IN FOR FIRST 24-36 HOURS OF FCST THERE. FRONT EXPECTED TO REACH FROM 31N70W TO FL KEYS BY 00Z THIS EVENING...THEN REACH 30N60W TO S CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY 00Z MON. SHORT LIVED PULSE OF NW SWELL WILL MOVE THROUGH ATLC WATERS THROUGH MON BUT WITH BEST ENERGY REMAINING N OF 24-25N. HIGH PRESSURE IN WAKE OF FRONT WILL SET UP LIGHT SLY FLOW N OF THE BAHAMAS ON MON...TURNING SW MON NIGHT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...GALE WARNING TODAY INTO TONIGHT. AMZ113...GALE WARNING TODAY INTO TONIGHT. AMZ115...GALE WARNING TODAY INTO TONIGHT. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.