000
AGXX40 KNHC 141754
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1254 PM EST FRI FEB 14 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST. MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST MANUAL
ADJUSTMENTS TO SEA HEIGHTS. MED-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE N-CENTRAL GULF WATERS THIS MORNING WILL 
SHIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS THIS EVENING THEN W OF THE AREA 
ON SAT. SLY RETURN FLOW OVER THE NW WATERS WILL INCREASE TODAY 
IN ADVANCE OF NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE N-CENTRAL COASTAL 
PLAINS THIS EVENING...AND EXPECTED TO RACE THROUGH THE SE GULF 
ON SUN EVENING...BUT HANG UP OVER THE W-CENTRAL WATERS TO THE N 
OF THE RIDGE THAT WILL LATER RETRACT W OF THE AREA. THE FRONT 
WILL WASH OUT AS RETURN FLOW SETS UP ON SUN. THE PREVIOUS 
REASONING OF SIGNIFICANT CAA EXPECTED E OF MOUTH OF MS TONIGHT
IN THE WAKE OF FRONT CONTINUED IN THIS PACKAGE...THUS EXPECT 
A WSW-NW 20-30 KT WIND SHIFT OVER THE NE WATERS ALONG THE 
FRONT...BUT ONLY A BRIEF NLY 20-25 KT WIND SHIFT W OF THE FRONT 
ALONG THE TX COASTAL BEND TONIGHT. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 
55W AND 65W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST. MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST.
MED CONFIDENCE. 

A FRONTAL TROUGH IS DISSIPATING FROM E CUBA TO NE HONDURAS. THE  
SW PERIPHERY OF A CENTRAL ATLC RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE 
NORTHERN TROPICAL WATERS AND ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN WATERS WITH 
ANTICYCLONIC 15-20 KT FLOW ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA E OF 67W. 
STRONG E 
FLOW ALONG THE NW COAST OF VENEZUELA...AND ALONG THE NE COAST OF 
COLOMBIA...WILL SHIFT FURTHER W AND INCREASE TO NEAR GALE 
CONDITIONS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA TONIGHT...AND REPEAT AGAIN 
EACH NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH SEAS TO 
13 FT AROUND SUNRISE EACH MORNING.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST. MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST.
MED CONFIDENCE.

A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM BERMUDA TO E CUBA WILL STALL THIS  
EVENING FROM 31N61W TO E CUBA. LIGHTNING DATA INDICATES 
SIGNIFICANT CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION AHEAD OF FRONT...BUT ONLY A 
FEW TSTMS NEAR THE FRONT IN VICINITY OF THE SE BAHAMA WATERS. 
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL DRIFT W ACROSS THE 
CENTRAL AND SE BAHAMAS TONIGHT INTO SAT. A SECOND COLD FRONT 
WILL ENTER THE NW WATERS TONIGHT WITH GALE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING 
N OF 28N EITHER SIDE OF FRONT BY SUNRISE SAT...BUT ENDING EARLY 
SAT NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM 31N70W TO NW CUBA SAT 
NIGHT...AND THEN STALL OVER THE FAR SE WATERS ON SUN AND 
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH MON. HIGH PRESSURE IN WAKE OF FRONT 
WILL SET UP LIGHT SLY FLOW N OF THE BAHAMAS ON MON...TURNING SW 
MON NIGHT. GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON THE NEXT FRONT ENTERING 
THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD...AND ONLY SE-S 10-15 KT CONDITIONS 
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA EARLY TO MID WEEK...EXCEPT E 20-25 KT 
DEVELOPING ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA AND THE N APPROACH TO 
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.    

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...NONE.
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...NONE.
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...GALE WARNING SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. 
AMZ113...GALE WARNING SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. 
AMZ115...GALE WARNING SAT NIGHT.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.