000 AGXX40 KNHC 140834 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 334 AM EST FRI FEB 14 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS FRONT WELL CLEAR OF THE BASIN AND NW TO N WINDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT ACROSS E PORTIONS...WHERE 02Z ALTIMETER PASS SHOWED SEAS 6-8 FT AND POSSIBLY MAX OF 9 FT NEAR 26N84W. RETURN FLOW HAS SET UP IN ADVANCE OF NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE BASIN NEXT 24 HOURS. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY S IN RECENT RUNS WITH SUPPORTING S/W NOW MOVING ACROSS TEXAS. SIGNIFICANT CAA EXPECTED E OF MOUTH OF MS TONIGHT BEHIND FRONT...AND HAS TRENDED WINDS ACROSS NE PORTIONS CLOSE TO GFS 30M WINDS...YIELDING WNW WINDS 30 KT AND POSSIBLY HIGHER JUST W THROUGH S OF APALACHICOLA...AND SEAS TO 9 FT...BECOMING MORE NW AND SLOWLY SUBSIDING ACROSS THE BIG BEND REGION THROUGH SAT NOON. FRONT TO REACH ALONG 25N90W AND BECOME STATIONARY THERE WHILE E PORTION MOVES SE ACROSS FL AND INTO THE STRAITS BY SAT EVENING WHERE IT WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH SUN. RETURN FLOW THEN SETS UP W HALF SAT NIGHT AND SUN IN ADVANCE OF NEXT MUCH WEAKER FRONTAL SYSTEM TO APPROACH TEXAS COAST EARLY TUE. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS FRONT HAS DRIFTED SE ACROSS NW PORTIONS...AND NOW EXTENDS FROM E CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N79W TO N COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR 85.5W. PRE FRONTAL TROUGH AHEAD OF FRONT THROUGH SE BAHAMAS AND ACROSS E CUBA WITH SUFFICIENT UPPER SUPPORT LINGERING FOR ISOLATED TSTMS E CUBA. NW TO N WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED TO AROUND 15 KT NOW NW OF FRONT WITH SEAS 4-7 FT...AND 02Z ALTIMETER PASS SHOWING 5 FT REACHING S TO BAY ISLANDS. E OF THIS PRES GRADIENT AND WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED PAST 24 HOURS...WITH 20-25 KT TRADES CONFINED TO CENTRAL CARIB S OF 14N BETWEEN 64W AND 75W WHERE SEAS ARE TO 9 FT. FRONT WILL BECOME QUASI STATIONARY TODAY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THEN DRIFT SLIGHTLY NW TONIGHT TO YIELD SHALLOW CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA...BEFORE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM SWEEPS ACROSS NE AND E GULF LATE TONIGHT AND SAT...REACHING NW CUBA LATE SUN WHERE IT WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE EARLY MON. STRONG TRADES TO REMAIN ACROSS S CENTRAL PORTIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING SLIGHTLY WWD TO OFFSHORE OF COLOMBIA TONIGHT AND PULSE TO 30 KT...THEN SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF BASIN S OF 16N E OF 80W SAT NIGHT AND SUN AS RIDGING OCCURS ACROSS THE GULF BEHIND NEXT FRONT. WINDS SAT NIGHT- SUN EXPECTED TO PULSE TO AROUND 30 KT OFF COLOMBIA...WITH SEAS 9 TO 12 FT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS-ECMWF CONSENSUS COLD FRONT NOW FROM 31N68.5W TO E CENTRAL CUBA...WITH PRE FRONTAL TROUGH FROM E CUBA TO NEAR 26N70W. ZONE OF SCT RW/TRW OCCURRING IN A 150-180 NM WIDE BAND E TO SE OF FRONT. RECENT PARTIAL SCAT PASSES SUGGEST WLY GALES CONTINUING N OF 29N W OF FRONT TO 76-77W WHERE SEAS ARE 9-14 FT. AS FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE E TO SE...SUPPORTING ENERGY WILL LIFT OUT AND GALES EXPECTED TO LIFT N OF AREA BY AROUND 12Z. WINDS TO DIMINISH QUICKLY BEHIND FRONT TODAY...WITH W TO NW SWELL PROPAGATING E AND SE AND FADING THROUGH THIS EVENING...WHILE N PORTIONS CONTINUE 8-12 FT IN MIXED S TO SE WIND SWELL AND WLY SWELL FROM FRONT. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY SWD WITH NEXT S/W CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS TEXAS AND ASSOCIATED SUPPORTING ENERGY FOR NEXT COLD FRONT...EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF GA AND N FL COASTS 09-12Z SAT...WITH SW WINDS 20-30 KT NW PORTIONS AHEAD OF FRONT...AND GALES WITH AND BEHIND FRONT. STRONG CAA BEHIND FRONT TO ALLOW STRONG VERTICAL MIXING TO OCCUR AND AGREE WITH OPC THAT 30M WINDS MORE APPROPRIATE HERE DESPITE COOL SHELF WATERS...AND HAVE GALES TO 40 KT BOTH SIDES OF FRONT 12Z THROUGH 00Z SUN MAINLY N OF 27.5N. HAVE BLENDED IN ECWAVE WITH LATEST WW3 TO BETTER CAPTURE THIS...AND UPPED SEAS MANUALLY AS FRONT APPROACHES GA COAST EARLY SAT. ONLY MODEST NW SWELL ENERGY TO PROPAGATE SE BEHIND THIS FRONT AS WELL DUE TO FAST MOTION AND BROAD WLY COMPONENT OF WIND BEHIND FRONT. FRONT TO REACH FROM JUST SE OF BERMUDA TO FL STRAITS EARLY SUN BEFORE STALLING ACROSS CENTRAL BAHAMAS LATE MON. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...GALE WARNING SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. AMZ113...GALE WARNING SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. AMZ115...GALE WARNING SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.