000 AGXX40 KNHC 121912 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 212 PM EST WED FEB 12 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. A 1010 MB LOW PRES LOCATED OVER THE NE GULF NEAR 30N86W IS STRENGTHENING. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ARE NOTED PER SCATTEROMETER DATA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW PRES TO NEAR VERACRUZ MEXICO. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXTENDS WITHIN AROUND 90 NM JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER NEAR THE TSTMS. LATEST SCATTEROMETER AND SURFACE DATA DEPICT GALE FORCE WINDS S OF 26N AND W OF THE FRONT WITH FRESH TO NEAR GALE WINDS ELSEWHERE BEHIND THE FRONT. MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE OBSERVED AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND OUTSIDE OF THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS. SEAS ARE IN THE 8-11 FT RANGE W OF THE COLD FRONT...6-8 FT NEAR THE LOW PRES CENTER AND 2-4 FT ELSEWHERE. THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE NE OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT SHIFTING SE OF THE AREA THU. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE SW GULF WATERS W OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING BELOW GALE FORCE BY TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS FROM W TO E STARTING TONIGHT AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SE AND AWAY FROM THE REGION. BY THU NIGHT...THE FRONT WILL BE SE OF AREA WITH WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT AND SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF REGION. A NEW COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE N WATERS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT BRINGING SOME INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS LATE SAT INTO SUN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS N OF THE AREA OVER THE SW N ATLC WATERS. THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS AND FEW SHIP OBSERVATIONS DEPICT FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. SEAS ARE IN THE 8-11 FT RANGE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...6-8 FT RANGE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...5-6 FT OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...3-5 FT OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND 6-8 FT OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL RETREAT EASTWARD THU WITH WINDS DIMINISHING OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO 20-25 KT. THE RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK N OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND WHICH WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE WINDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE JUST OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. NE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS THROUGH SUN WITH SEAS IN THE 6-9 FT RANGE. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. A WEAK RIDGE PREVAILS OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST REGION WITH A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE NORTH WATERS. FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS ARE NOTED N OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PER THE MOST RECENT ASCAT PASS WITH SEAS TO AROUND 9 FT. GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES ARE S OF 23N AND LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. THE LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL ACCELERATE NE PASSING OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA EARLY THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING NE ADJACENT TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE LOW WILL PULL A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION BY EARLY THU. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL REACH MINIMAL GALE FORCE MAINLY N OF 28N TONIGHT WITH THESE CONDITIONS SPREADING E ACROSS THE N WATERS AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH THU NIGHT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT ON THU...PARTICULARLY ACROSS ZONES AMZ111 AND AMZ113. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 31N78W TO SOUTH FLORIDA BY THU MORNING AND RAPIDLY SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA REACHING FROM 31N66W TO CENTRAL CUBA BY FRI MORNING WHERE IT WILL STALL AND BECOME DIFFUSE BY SAT. A SECOND FRONT WILL AFFECT THE NORTHERN WATERS LATE FRI INTO SAT. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT ON SAT WITH BUILDING SEAS UP TO 10-12 FT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...GALE WARNING TODAY. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...GALE WARNING TODAY INTO TONIGHT. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO THU NIGHT. AMZ113...GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO THU NIGHT. AMZ115...GALE WARNING THU INTO FRI. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.