000 AGXX40 KNHC 111907 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 207 PM EST TUE FEB 11 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGESTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WAVE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NW GULF. AT 1800 UTC...A WEAK LOW PRES IS ANALYZED NEAR 26N96W. AT THIS TIME...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRES THEN CONTINUES SW TO JUST SOUTH OF TAMPICO MEXICO. THE MOST RECENT ASCAT PASS SHOWS 20-25 KT NE WINDS N OF THE FRONT OVER THE NW GULF AND 25 TO 30 KT NW TO N WINDS W OF THE FRONT JUST OFF THE MEXICAN COAST. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY SINK SOUTHWARD THROUGH WED WHILE THE LOW PRES WILL MOVE TO NEAR PENSACOLA FLORIDA IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. AS THE LOW PRES DEVELOPS AND MOVES TOWARD THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE FORCED TO MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHWARD. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WED EVENING MOVING SE OF THE AREA BY THU. MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS ZONE GMZ117 TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING AND ZONE GMZ023 WED MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH BUILDING SEAS UP TO 10-11 FT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE LATE WED AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND PREVAIL FRI AND SAT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS N OF THE AREA OVER THE SW N ATLC WATERS. THE MOST RECENT ASCAT PASS ALONG WITH BUOY AND FEW SHIP OBSERVATIONS DEPICT STRONG TO NEAR GALE WINDS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. SEAS ARE IN THE 8-12 FT RANGE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...5-7 FT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...4-6 FT OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...3-5 FT OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND 6-9 FT OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. THE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL N OF THE AREA THROUGH THU BEFORE RETREATING EASTWARD. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHICH WILL PEAK NEAR GALE FORCE DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THU AS THE RIDGE RETREATS EASTWARD. WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE STARTS TO REBUILD N OF THE AREA. MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. NE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS THROUGH SAT WITH SEAS IN THE 6-9 FT RANGE. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. A WEAK RIDGE PREVAILS OVER THE FORECAST WATERS PRODUCING MAINLY LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS...EXCEPT S OF 22N WHERE GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE NOTED PER THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA. SEAS ARE IN THE 4-5 FT RANGE OVER THE WATERS E OF THE BAHAMAS...AND 1-3 FT RANGE W OF THE BAHAMAS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS WED NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BRIG A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS MAINLY ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 26N. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE FORECAST TO REACH MINIMAL GALE FORCE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS ZONE AMZ111 WED NIGHT INTO THU...ZONE AMZ113 THU INTO THU NIGHT...AND ZONE AMZ115 THU NIGHT INTO FRI. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH FROM NEAR 31N78W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA THU MORNING AND FROM 30N65W TO EASTERN CUBA FRI MORNING WHERE IT WILL STALL AND WEAKEN THROUGH SAT. EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND BUILDING SEAS OF 9-12 FT. A REINFORCING FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLIP THE NORTH WATERS BY SAT WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT AFFECTING MAINLY THE FORECAST REGION N OF 28N. OF NOTE...THE LATEST 1200 UTC RUN OF THE GFS MODEL ALSO SUGGESTS GALE FORCE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS NW WATERS ON THU. DECISION WILL BE MADE WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO WED. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...GALE WARNING WED INTO WED NIGHT. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU. GALE WARNING WED NIGHT INTO THU. AMZ113...GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU INTO THU NIGHT. AMZ115...GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU NIGHT INTO FRI. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.