000 AGXX40 KNHC 101850 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 150 PM EST MON FEB 10 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH PRESSURE OF 1021 MB IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF PRODUCING MAINLY LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS. LATEST SCATTEROMETER AND SURFACE DATA DEPICT MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OVER THE SE GULF AND GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE W GULF. SEAS ARE IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE OVER MUCH OF THE GULF EXCEPT FOR THE NE GULF WHERE SEAS IN THE 1-2 FT RANGE PREVAIL. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE N GULF WATERS LATER TODAY AND SLOWLY SINK SOUTHWARD THROUGH WED...REACHING FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO NE MEXICO TUE MORNING. THE EAST PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL OVER THE N GULF STATES AS A WEAK LOW PRES BEGINS TO DEVELOP LIKELY JUST E OF SE LOUISIANA...WHILE THE W PORTION IS FORCED QUICKLY S ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF WATERS AND COASTAL PLAINS OF MEXICO AS THE LOW PRES MOVES ENE ACROSS THE NE GULF AND NORTHERN FLORIDA. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE BY WED AFTERNOON...THEN WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY SHIFT SE EXTENDING FROM S FLORIDA TO THE N YUCATAN PENINSULA EARLY THU...AND SE OF THE AREA BY THU EVENING. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20-30 KT AND BUILDING SEAS UP TO 10-11 FT WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT. CURRENTLY...THE SREF PROBABILITIES OF GALE FORCE WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 15-20 PERCENT ACROSS ZONES GMZ017 AND GMZ023 ON WED...BUT THE ENSEMBLE GALE PROBABILITY IS STILL ZERO AT THIS TIME...THOUGH WINDS OF 20-30 KT ARE STILL FORECAST. HOWEVER...GUSTY WINDS OF MINIMAL GALE FORCE ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT ON WED. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ARE STILL NOTED NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA PER THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES PREVAIL OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE BLOWING OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. SEAS ARE IN THE 9-13 FT RANGE OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...5-8 FT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...5-7 FT OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND 3-5 FT OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. NE SWELLS WITH SEAS IN THE 6-9 FT RANGE CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. WEAK RIDGE WILL PERSIST N OF THE AREA WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS PREVAILING OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN DURING THE DAY AND PULSING TO NEAR GALE FORCE OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE RIDGE N OF THE AREA WILL RETREAT EASTWARD THU WHICH WILL DIMINISH WINDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN THU AND FRI. NE SWELL WITH SEAS IN THE 6-8 FT RANGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS THROUGH FRI. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE AGAIN TO 25-30 KT ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY SAT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N62W TO 28N69W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO NEAR 26N75W. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MODERATE WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. SEAS ARE IN THE 4-5 FT RANGE N OF 23N E OF THE BAHAMAS AND 5-6 FT S OF 23N E OF THE BAHAMAS. SEAS W OF THE BAHAMAS ARE IN THE 1-3 FT RANGE. THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH WED. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NW WATERS WED EVENING. EXPECT INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WED NIGHT INTO THU. THESE WINDS MAY REACH GALE FORCE E OF THE FRONT IN ZONE AMZ115 THU AND HAVE CONTINUED TO HEADLINE THIS POSSIBILITY IN THE FORECAST. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR 31N72W TO W CUBA THU EVENING...THEN FROM 31N65W TO CENTRAL CUBA FRI MORNING...AND FROM 28N65W TO EASTERN CUBA FRI EVENING. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH BUILDING SEAS OF UP TO 10-11 FT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU INTO THU NIGHT. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.