000 AGXX40 KNHC 091923 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 223 PM EST SUN FEB 9 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS THROUGH DAY 2 THEN GFS-ECMWF CONSENSUS REMNANTS OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW BEING PUSHED SLOWLY S ACROSS SE PORTIONS...CURRENTLY FROM JUST NW OF THE FL KEYS THEN WSW TO NEAR 22N90W...WITH PRE FRONTAL TROUGH THAT MOVED THROUGH S FL LAST NIGHT NOW FROM NW BAHAMAS TO NW COAST OF CUBA JUST W OF LA HABANA. NNE FLOW NEAR 15 KT ACROSS E AND SE PORTIONS...WITH SEAS THERE BUILDING 3-4 FT...WIND VEERS ANTICYCLONICALLY TO NE AROUND 15 KT N OF FRONT AND INTO SW GULF...WHERE BUOY 42055 HAS RETURNED TO 5 FT. WEAK LINGERING TROFFING PERSISTS ACROSS NW GULF AND FAR SW PORTIONS. FRONT EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS EARLY THIS EVENING AND WASH OUT THROUGH MON. NEXT FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE N WATERS MON. THE FRONT DEVELOPS AS A COASTAL TROUGH FROM CENTRAL TEXAS TO COASTAL MS MON AFTERNOON THEN WILL SINK SLOWLY S REACHING FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO BRO TUE AFTERNOON...WITH E PORTION THEN STALLING AS LLVL LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP THERE...WHILE W PORTION IS FORCED QUICKLY S ACROSS W PORTIONS AND COASTAL PLAINS OF MEXICO...REACHING W BAY OF CAMPECHE TO PANHANDLE WED AFTERNOON. MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...WITH WINDS FORECAST JUST UNDER GALE FORCE W OF 95W TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS ATLC RIDGE CONTINUES TO SHIFT ENE AND WEAKEN W OF 60W. STRONG TRADES REMAIN CONFINED TO S CENTRAL PORTIONS OF CARIB IN CLIMO ZONE OF CARIB LLVL JET. BUOY 42058 IN CENTRAL CARIB CONTINUES TO FLUCTUATE NEAR 20 KT AND AT 6-7 FT...WITH WW3 STILL ABOUT 1.5-3 FT HIGH THROUGH THIS REGION...WHICH IS UNUSUAL. PEAK WINDS OFF COLOMBIA YIELDING 9-11 FT SEAS. ANOTHER PULSE OF ENE TRADEWIND SWELL IS MOVING THROUGH TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS ATTM YIELDING SEAS 8-9 FT ALL BUT NW PORTIONS. GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES PREVAIL OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. WEAK RIDGE WILL PREVAIL N OF THE AREA TO MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES OVER THE CARIBBEAN...AND PULSING TO NEAR GALE FORCE OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA DURING THE LATE NIGHT TO EARLY MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATE THU AS THE RIDGE RETREATS EASTWARD. PERSISTENT ATLC RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN ENE TRADEWIND SWELL YIELDING SEAS IN THE 6-8 FT RANGE THROUGH THU. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS COLD FRONT HAS BEGUN TO MOVE SE TODAY...NOW REACHING FROM 31N67W TO NEAR 28N74.5W...THEN DRIFTING SE THROUGH NW BAHAMAS AND INTO EXTREME S FL. SMALL N SWELL WAS GENERATED ACROSS NW PORTIONS YESTERDAY AND EARLY LAST NIGHT AND MOVED SWD DOWN ENTIRE COAST OF FL AND INTO SE FL WATERS W OF BAHAMAS BEFORE FADING THIS MORNING. RECENT ASCAT PASSES SHOW CONVERGENCE BAND N TO S ON E SIDE OF GULF STREAM WITH NLY FLOW 15-20 KT SPILLING DOWN COAST TO THE W OF BAND...AND WILL KEEP SEAS IN 4-5 FT RANGE THROUGH TONIGHT. COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SE THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING FROM NEAR 29N65W TO NW BAHAMAS AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH WED. WEAK GRADIENT BEHIND FRONT TO YIELD N TO NE WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. NEXT FRONT WILL MOVE INTO ERN GULF WED AND THEN ACROSS FL AND OFF THE SE US COAST EARLY THU...REACHING 31N73W TO STRAITS OF FL THU AFTERNOON. DECIDEDLY NW TO WNW FLOW EXPECTED BEHIND FRONT 25-30 KT AND SW 25-35 AHEAD OF FRONT. MODEL BLEND OF WINDS HAS YIELDED MINIMAL GALES N OF 28N E OF FRONT AND HAVE KEPT HEADLINE IN FORECAST. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU. AMZ113...GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU INTO THU NIGHT. AMZ115...GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU INTO THU NIGHT. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.