000
AGXX40 KNHC 081935
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
235 PM EST SAT FEB 8 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS 

FRONTAL BOUNDARY PERSISTS ACROSS THE BASIN THIS AFTERNOON...AND
HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT NEBULOUS ACROSS W AND NW PORTIONS PAST 12-24
HOURS. STLT IMAGERY...SFC OBS...AND RECENT ASCAT PASS SUGGEST THAT
FRONT NOW EXTENDS SW ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH CAPE CORAL
AREA THEN CONTINUES WSW ALONG NRN PERIPHERY OF LINE OF MODEST
CNVTN TO 23.5N95.5W THEN BECOMING DIFFUSE TO THE S-SE...AND
REMAINING TO THE W OF BUOY 42055 WHICH STILL HAS DEWPOINT OF 74F.
OVERNIGHT AND MORNING SCAT PASSES SHOWED NNW WINDS ACROSS W
PORTIONS OF THE BASIN AT 20-25 KT AND STILL MAINTAINING A ZONE OF
6-8 FT SEAS THERE EXTENDING S TO NEAR 20N. S/W MOVING NE ACROSS E
SIDE OF BROAD ERN U.S. UPPER THROUGH IS PUSHING FRONTAL ZONE
ACROSS THE SW N ATLC TO THE E...AND DRAGGING REST OF FRONT S-SE
ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND SE GULF. NE WINDS 15-20 KT N OF THE
FRONT ACROSS NE PORTIONS EXTEND TO NEAR 90W WITH SEAS LIKELY 4-6
FT. FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING S-SE OVERNIGHT AND STALL ACROSS
FLORIDA KEYS AND N PORTIONS OF STRAITS SUN MORNING EXTENDING WWD
TO ABOUT 24.5N90W...WHERE IT WILL BECOME DIFFUSE THROUGH MON.
NEXT FRONT THEN FORMS ALONG COASTAL TROUGH ALONG TEXAS AND LA
COASTS MON MORNING...SINKS SLOWLY S THROUGH EARLY TUE...REACHING
FORM W FL PANHANDLE TO JUST S OF BRO BY 12Z. HIGH PRES WILL THEN
BUILD S DOWN MEXICAN COASTAL PLAINS AND PUSH FRONT INTO W PORTIONS
OF BAY OF CAMPECHE BY 12Z WED...WHILE REMAINDER OF FRONT MEANDERS
AND BEGINS TO DRIFT N AS LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP ACROSS SE LA
COASTS. MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT THAT NLY WINDS ACROSS W
PORTIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW GALE.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 65W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS 

WEAKENING RIDGE ACROSS W ATLC MAINTAINING SUFFICIENT GRADIENT
ACROSS THE CARIB FOR 25-30 KT WINDS OFF OF COLOMBIA WITH FRESH
TRADES ELSEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS. ANOTHER AREA OF MODEST
LLVL MOISTURE IS MOVING INTO LESSER ANTILLES WITH FRESHENING TRADES
NEAR 20 KT ACROSS MOST OF TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS AND CARIB E OF
62-63W. ATLC RIDGE TO BE PUSHED EWD NEXT 48 HOURS AS SW N ATLC
FRONT MOVES SE...AND WILL WEAKEN PRES GRADIENT AND IN TURN WINDS
ACROSS THE BASIN...THROUGH WED WITH WINDS PULSING TO NEAR 30 KT
OFF OF COLOMBIA AT NIGHT. LARGE ENE SWELL MOVING THROUGH TROPICAL
N ATLC WATERS TODAY...WHERE SEAS AREA 8-10 FT S OF 18N AND 7-8 N
OF 18N. A NEXT PULSE OF THIS ENE SWELL WILL MOVE INTO THIS AREA
SUN TO MAINTAIN SEAS IN 8-9 FT RANGE.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF CONSENSUS

AS MENTIONED ABOVE FRONT MOVING SE ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE AREA
WITH NO OBVIOUS SIGNALS OF SFC LOW DEVELOPING ALONG FRONT...BUT
BAROCLINIC LEAF APPEARANCE IN DENSE MULTI LAYERED CLOUDS
SUGGESTING GFS POSITION FOR LOW NEXT 6 HOURS IS REASONABLE. GFS
AND ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON LOW POSITION IN SHORT TERM...AND
HAVE BLENDED IN 30 KT OF NW FLOW DEPICTED BY MODELS NW OF FRONT
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FRONT TO THEN BE DRAGGED SE AND
WEAKEN NEXT 48 HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING FROM NEAR 31N62W TO N
CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY TUE MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRES BEHIND FRONT TO
FILL IN NLY WINDS 20 KT OR LESS SUN...AND THEN RIDGING AND WEAKER
WINDS MON AND TUE.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...NONE.
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...NONE.
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.