000 AGXX40 KNHC 071939 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 239 PM EST FRI FEB 7 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS THROUGH DAY 2 THEN GFS-ECMWF BLEND FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS S CENTRAL FL IS RELATIVELY STATIONARY FROM NEAR 27N81W TO 24N95W TO CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE. DENSE FOG S OF BOUNDARY ACROSS S FL HAS LARGELY BURNED OFF BUT STLT IMAGERY SUGGESTS FOG HAS SHIFTED SW AND OVER WATER JUST OFFSHORE OF SW COAST EXTENDING W TO 83W. 1035 MB HIGH ACROSS OHIO VALLEY CONTINUES TO INDUCE ENE WINDS 20-25 KT N OF FRONT TO ABOUT 28N ACROSS CENTRAL AND W CENTRAL PORTIONS...WITH SEAS THERE TO 10 FT...WHILE RIDGE NOSES ACROSS TEXAS AND DOWN MEXICAN COASTAL PLAINS TO CHIVELAS PASS...ALSO INDUCING STRONG NNW FLOW 20-30 KT W OF FRONT...WHERE SEAS WERE ANALYZED TO 11 FT AT 12Z THIS MORNING. MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON FRONT DRIFTING NWD THROUGH THIS EVENING THEN STALLING BEFORE S/W CURRENTLY MOVING E THROUGH TEXAS REACHES SE U.S. EARLY SAT AND PICKS UP FRONT AND MOVES IT SE WHILE QUICKLY WEAKENING...WHILE DEVELOPING SFC LOW OFF CAROLINA COASTS SHIFTS NE. WEAK HIGH FORECAST TO SINK ALONG N GULF COASTS SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND YIELD ONLY MODEST PRES GRADIENT N AND NW OF FRONT...AND YIELD NE WINDS 15-20 KT N OF FRONT AND SMALL AREA OF NNW 20-25 KT WINDS ACROSS SW PORTIONS W OF FRONT. HIGH TO SINKD SLIGHLTY S AND INTO N PORTIONS OF BASIN WITH GRADIENT WEAKENING AND ANTICYLONIC FLOW GENERALLY 15 KT AND LESS THROUGH LATE SUN. HIGH TO SHIFT E AND INTO SW N ATLC MON ALLOWING MODERATE SE RETURN FLOW TO SET UP W OF 90W MON...WHILE NEW FRONT DEVELOPS ALONG TEXAS AND SW LA COASTS MON NIGHT...AND IS FORCED SLOWLY S ACROSS NW PORTIONS THROUGH LATE TUE...BEFORE NLY FLOW 20-30 KT RACES QUICKLY S DOWN MEXICAN COAST WED. WW3 DID NOT CAPTURE PEAK SEAS WELL WITH THIS EVENT AND AM INCREASING SWH MANUALLY ACROSS PEAK AREAS OF WINDS TO IMPROVE OUTPUT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS ATLC RIDGE HAS WEAKENED DURING PAST SEVERAL DAYS...AND HAS DRIFTED SLOLWY S TO ALONG 28N-29N EXTENDING WWD TO NEAR NW BAHAMAS...WHERE OLD FRONTAL ZONE HAS BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF SW N ATLC ZONES. MODEST PRES GRADIENT S OF RIDGE YIELDING ONLY 20-25 KT WINDS OFF OF COLOMBIA...AND GENERALLY 15-20 KT ELSEWHERE E OF 80W. BUOY 42058 IN CENTRAL CARIB HAS DROPPED TO 5 FT TODAY...WHICH IS UNUSUALLY LOW FOR THAT REGION...AND SUGGEST DIFFLUENT FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL PORTOINS UPSTREAM THAT MODELS NOT CAPTURING. E OF THE ISLANDS AND MUCH CLOSER TO INFLUENCE OF PRES GRADIENT S OF RIDGE...NE TO E WINDS 20-25 KT ARE PREVAILING ACROSS LARGE POCKETS ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC...WHERE SEAS ARE RUNNING 8-10 FT IN MIXED ENE AND N SWELL. THE RIDGE WILL REBUILD FURTHER THIS WEEKEND AND INCREASE COVERAGE OF STRONG WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...WITH WINDS WILL REACH NEAR GALE FORCE DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...AND SEAS BUILDING TO NEAR 10 FT OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND 7-9 FT SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MON BEFORE SUBSIDING SLIGHTLY...TO 6-8 FT BY TUE. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF CONSENSUS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS STALLED FROM NEAR BERMUDA ACROSS S CENTRAL FLOLIRA TO NEAR W CENTRAL COAST OF FL. EARLY MORNIN SCAT PASSES SHOWED MODEST AREA OF 20-25 KT WINDS NW OF FRONT OFFSHORE OF CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS. E OF THE FRONT...MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS PREVAIL S OF 22N WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAILING N OF 22N. SEAS IN THE 5-7 FT RANGE PREVAILS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA OUTSIDE OF THE BAHAMAS...WITH SEAS REACHING 8 FT SE PORTIONS...IN THE AREA OF STRONGEST TRADES. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL NEXT FEW HOURS THEN STALL OVERNIGHT AND WILL LIFT SLOWLY N AS A WARM FRONT. WEAK LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT SAT. THE LOW PRES CENTER WILL MOVE NE SUN DRAGGING A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 31N74W TO SOUTH FLORIDA SUN THEN BECOME STATIONARY FROM 31N65W TO EASTERN CUBA MON AND TUE. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.