000 AGXX40 KNHC 061903 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 203 PM EST THU FEB 6 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. 12Z MODEL UPDATE...THE 12Z GFS AND UKMET HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE ECMWF ON MON/TUE CARRYING A COLD FRONT INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE FORECAST REASONING WAS ADJUSTED AT THE END OF THE PERIOD BASED ON THIS TREND TOWARD THE STRONGER ECMWF IN BOTH THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE SW N ATLC. ------------------------------------------------------------------- PREVIOUS FORECAST... ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF THROUGH SUN THEN LEANED TOWARD THE GFS ON MON/TUE. MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVES PARAMETERS AND ADJUSTED FOR WINDS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. BUOYS 42002 AND 42055 SHOW WINDS AND SEAS ARE DIMINISHING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS MORNING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT STRETCHES FROM NEAR NAPLES FLORIDA TO 25N85W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY THEN CONTINUES W TO 23N92W AND S TO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N93W. THE FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD OVER THE E GULF FRI NIGHT AS A WEAK LOW PRES SYSTEM DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NE GULF AND MOVES INTO THE ATLC OFF NE FLORIDA. UNCERTAINTY COMES INTO PLAY WITH THE MODELS BY THIS TIME...WITH THE 00Z/06 ECMWF FAVORING A FRONTAL WAVE IN THE NE GULF WHILE THE 06Z/06 GFS WAITS TO DEVELOP A WAVE OR LOW OVER THE ATLC. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THESE FINE DETAILS WITH THE WAVE ALONG THE FRONT...SO THE ECMWF WAS BLENDED INTO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FROM FRI NIGHT ONWARD. THE FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE S AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE FAR SE WATERS SUN...WITH HIGH PRES TAKING CONTROL OF THE GULF REGION. MORE DIFFERENCES COME INTO PLAY ON MON WHEN THE ECMWF TAKES A COLD FRONT OFF THE TEXAS COAST INTO THE NW GULF WHILE THE GFS HOLDS THE BOUNDARY N OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE EC ENSEMBLE MEAN AND GEFS MEAN AS WELL AS THE REMAINING GLOBAL GUIDANCE FAVORS THE SLOWER 06Z GFS SOLUTION...SO IT WAS USED HERE. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 AND NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVES PARAMETERS IN THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE EC WAVE ADDED TO THE BLEND IN THE TROPICAL ATLC. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A RIDGE NE OF THE AREA ALONG 28N IS BEING ENCROACHED UPON BY A COLD FRONT OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA TO 25 KT AT STRONGEST...BUT THE PRES GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO BUILD AGAIN BY THE WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE RIDGE IS FORCED S. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A STRONG BREEZE TO NEAR GALE FORCE OFF COLOMBIA OVER THE WEEKEND AND DIMINISH AGAIN MON AS THE FRONT TO THE N PUSHES EASTWARD. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE EAST AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH LIGHTER WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. SEAS WILL BE UP TO 10-11 FT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WITH 7-9 FT SEAS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND 7-9 FT SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF THROUGH SUN THEN LEANED TOWARD THE GFS ON MON/TUE. MWW3 AND EC WAVE BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVES PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT FROM 31N76W TO VERO BEACH FLORIDA HAS ENCROACHED ON THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA...SHIFTING THE RIDGE ALONG 28N EASTWARD. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL FROM 31N72W TO S FLORIDA THU NIGHT AND GRADUALLY RETREAT NORTHWARD OVER W WATERS THROUGH FRI NIGHT AS A FRONTAL WAVE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO MOVES INTO THE ATLC AND DEEPENS. AS STATED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO SECTION...THE 00Z/06 ECMWF FAVORS A FRONTAL WAVE IN THE GULF COMPARED TO THE WEAKER GFS. THE GFS DEVELOPS THE LOW IN THE ATLC OFF THE NE FL COAST NEAR 29N WHILE THE ECMWF IS ABOUT A DEGREE OR TWO FARTHER N EARLY SAT MORNING. THIS ALLOWS THE GFS TO BRIEFLY BUILD WINDS TO ADVISORY CONDITIONS N OF THE LOW. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THESE FINE DETAILS WITH THE WAVE ALONG THE FRONT...SO THE ECMWF WAS BLENDED INTO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FROM FRI NIGHT ONWARD AS WAS THE EC WAVE FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. THIS KEEPS BOTH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW ADVISORY CONDITONS NEAR THE FRONT...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF SAT AFTERNOON AS THE LOW BEGINS TO DEEPEN AND WINDS RAMP UP BEFORE THE SYSTEM GETS TOO FAR N. EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE ECMWF BECOMES AN OUTLIER WITH THE NEXT FRONT EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS ALSO INFLUENCES THE FLOW UPSTREAM IN THE ATLC...SO THE GFS IS FAVORED BY MON AS EXPLAINED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO SECTION. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.