000 AGXX40 KNHC 060742 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 242 AM EST THU FEB 6 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVES PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR SARASOTA TO 23N93W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY THEN CONTINUES ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE TO NEAR 18N94W. A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLDER AIR HAS BROUGHT AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH LATEST SCATTEROMETER AND SURFACE DATA SHOWING N-NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO FURTHER INCREASE TO 30 KT EARLY THIS MORNING DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO AROUND 10 FT TODAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 15 TO 20 KT BY LATE FRI AS VERY STRONG HIGH PRES CURRENTLY BEHIND THE FRONT WEAKENS AND MOVES EASTWARD. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL FROM SOUTH FLORIDA TO THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE THU AND FRI...THEN IT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SE REACHING THE SE GULF WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND AS A WEAK LOW PRES SYSTEM DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF THE NW BAHAMAS. THE FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE S AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE FAR SE WATERS SUN...WITH HIGH PRES TAKING CONTROL OF THE GULF REGION. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IS FORECAST TO SET UP ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVES PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A STRONG ATLC RIDGE REMAINS N OF THE AREA ALONG 29N. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE PANAMANIAN/COLOMBIAN LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH THIS MORNING. THE MOST RECENT ASCAT PASS CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF THESE WIND SPEED. WINDS DIMINISH SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRI NIGHT...BUT RETURN A STRONG BREEZE TO NEAR GALE FORCE OVER THE WEEKEND. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE EAST AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH LIGHTER WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS WHERE FRESH EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT NIGHT. SEAS WILL BE UP TO 10-11 FT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA THIS MORNING THEN SUBSIDE TO 8-9 FT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRI NIGHT AND BUILD AGAIN UP TO 11 FT DURING THE WEEKEND. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND 7-9 FT SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SEAS WILL BUILD TO AROUND 10 FT OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE TRADES SLIGHTLY INCREASE JUST E OF THE OFFSHORE FORECAST REGION. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVES PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A STRONG RIDGE EXTENDING FROM E TO W ALONG 29N CONTINUES TO DOMINATES MOST OF THE FORECAST REGION. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA FOLLOWED BY FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR 31N74W TO SOUTH FLORIDA THIS EVENING WHERE IT WILL STALL... THEN WILL LIFT SLOWLY NW AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH LATE FRI... LINGERING OVER THE NW CORNER THROUGH SAT. A WEAK LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST N OF THE NW BAHAMAS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...THEN THE LOW PRES WILL MOVE NE AND AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA BY SAT EVENING. AS THE LOW PRES DEVELOPS...WINDS WILL BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 25-30 KT ACROSS THE NW WATERS ON SAT. THEN...A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE NW WATERS SUN REACHING FROM 31N73W TO SOUTH FLORIDA SUN NIGHT...THEN WILL MOVE QUICKLY SE TO A POSITION FROM 31N65W TO EASTERN CUBA ON MON. MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE REINFORCING COLD FRONT WITH BUILDING SEAS OF 5-7 FT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.