000 AGXX40 KNHC 051602 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1102 AM EST WED FEB 5 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST THROUGH FRI WITH ECMWF GRADUALLY FAVORED FRI NIGHT ONWARD. MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVES PARAMETERS AND ADJUSTED FOR WINDS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM DESTIN FLORIDA TO HEROICA VERACRUZ MEXICO. A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLDER AIR BROUGHT AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS MORNING...WITH A FRESH TO STRONG N-NE BREEZE MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT FROM 25N TO 28N. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 8 FT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD OVER THE E GULF FRI NIGHT AND SAT AS A WEAK LOW PRES SYSTEM DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NE GULF AND MOVES INTO THE ATLC OFF NE FLORIDA. MINOR UNCERTAINTY COMES INTO PLAY WITH THE MODELS BY THIS TIME...WITH THE 00Z/05 ECMWF FAVORING A STRONGER LOW PRES SYSTEM IN THE GULF THAN THE GFS AND LIFTS THE BOUNDARY FARTHER N ALONG THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THESE FINE DETAILS WITH THE WAVE ALONG THE FRONT...SO THE ECMWF WAS BLENDED INTO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FROM FRI NIGHT ONWARD. THE FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE S AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE FAR SE WATERS SUN...WITH HIGH PRES TAKING CONTROL OF THE GULF REGION. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 AND NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVES PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A STRONG ATLC RIDGE REMAINS N OF THE AREA ALONG 30N. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE PANAMANIAN/COLOMBIAN LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH THU MORNING. WINDS DIMINISH SLIGHTLY THU AFTERNOON THROUGH FRI NIGHT...BUT RETURN A STRONG BREEZE TO NEAR GALE FORCE OVER THE WEEKEND. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE EAST AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH LIGHTER WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS WHERE FRESH EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT NIGHT. SEAS WILL BE UP TO 10-11 FT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WITH 7-10 FT SEAS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND 7-9 FT SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO UP TO 10 FT SAT WITH REINFORCING NE-E SWELL ARRIVING. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST THROUGH FRI WITH ECMWF GRADUALLY FAVORED FRI NIGHT ONWARD. MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVES PARAMETERS THROUGH FRI NIGHT WITH EC WAVE ADDED TO BLEND FRI NIGHT ONWARD. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A STRONG RIDGE EXTENDING FROM E TO W ALONG 30N CONTINUES TO DOMINATES THE FORECAST REGION FOR THE MOMENT. A COLD FRONT WILL ENCROACH ON THE NW PORTION OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...SHIFTING THE HIGH PRES EASTWARD. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CONDITIONS WITH THE FRONT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL FROM 31N72W TO S FLORIDA THU NIGHT AND GRADUALLY RETREAT NORTHWARD OVER W WATERS THROUGH FRI NIGHT AS A FRONTAL WAVE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO MOVES INTO THE ATLC AND DEEPENS. AS STATED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO SECTION...THE 00Z/05 ECMWF FAVORS A STRONGER LOW PRES SYSTEM IN THE GULF THAN THE GFS AND LIFTS THE BOUNDARY FARTHER N ALONG THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE GFS BUILDS 20-25 KT WINDS ON THE N SIDE OF THE LOW PRES SYSTEM DEEPENING N OF THE BAHAMAS AT 00Z SAT WHILE THE ECMWF IS WEAKER AND WAITS TO MOVE THE LOW OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST UNTIL 06Z SAT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THESE FINE DETAILS WITH THE WAVE ALONG THE FRONT...SO THE ECMWF WAS BLENDED INTO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FROM FRI NIGHT ONWARD AS WAS THE EC WAVE FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.