000 AGXX40 KNHC 050733 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 233 AM EST WED FEB 5 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVES PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A NEW COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE GULF WATERS AND CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM SE LOUISIANA TO NEAR TUXPAN MEXICO. MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS FOLLOW THE FRONT...FORECAST TO REACH A POSITION FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLDER AIR WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT...EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG N-NE WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS OF 8-9 FT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THESE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST LATE THU. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL FROM NEAR SARASOTA FLORIDA TO THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE THU AND FRI...THEN IT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SE REACHING THE SE GULF WATERS DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS A WEAK LOW PRES SYSTEM DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST OFFSHORE NE FLORIDA. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE FAR SE WATERS BY SUN WITH HIGH PRES TAKING CONTROL OF THE GULF REGION. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVES PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A STRONG ATLC RIDGE REMAINS N OF THE AREA ALONG 30N. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE PANAMANIAN/COLOMBIAN LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OF 25-30 KT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE MOST RECENT ASCAT PASS SHOWED 25-30 KT NE-E WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN PARTICULARLY FROM 11N- 13N BETWEEN 73W-76W. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE EAST AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH LIGHTER WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS WHERE FRESH EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT NIGHT. SEAS WILL BE UP TO 10-11 FT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WITH 7-10 FT SEAS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND 7-9 FT SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO UP TO 10 FT SAT WITH REINFORCING NE-E SWELL ARRIVING. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVES PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A STRONG RIDGE EXTENDING FROM E TO W ALONG 30N CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST REGION. LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE E-SE WINDS ARE N OF 27N WITH SEAS OF 4-6 FT IN E-SE SWELL. S OF 27N... MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE-E WINDS AND 6-8 FT SEAS ARE PRESENT OUTSIDE THE BAHAMAS...WITH 1-3 FT SEAS INSIDE THE BAHAMAS. THESE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. OTHER THAN THE RIDGE...THE ONLY FEATURE OF SIGNIFICANCE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE BASIN THROUGH THE WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND IS A WEAK COLD FRONT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA WED EVENING REACHING FROM NEAR 31N74W TO S CENTRAL FLORIDA BY THU WHERE IT WILL STALL...THEN WILL LIFT SLOWLY NW AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH LATE FRI...LINGERING OVER THE NW CORNER THROUGH SAT. A WEAK LOW PRES MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR NE FLORIDA LATE FRI INTO SAT. EXPECT ONLY BRIEF PERIODS OF MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE WEAK COLD FRONT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.