000
AGXX40 KNHC 041801
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
101 PM EST TUE FEB 4 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST. MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVES
PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

THE COLD FRONT THAT HAD STALLED OUT IN THE CENTRAL GULF YESTERDAY
AS MOVED BACK TO THE NW AS A WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING
ALONG THE NW AND N CENTRAL GULF COASTS AS ADVERTISED. THE FRONT
HAS SINCE STALLED OUT WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW AND 3-5 FT SEAS IN THE SW HALF OF THE GULF WITH 1-3 FT
SEAS IN THE NE HALF OF THE GULF. A NEW COLD FRONT WILL MERGE WITH
OR OVERTAKE THE OLD FRONT LATER TODAY...EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO TAMPICO MEXICO BY WED...STALLING FROM NEAR
SARASOTA FLORIDA TO THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE THU INTO EARLY
FRI. THE FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO VERY SLOWLY DRIFT BACK TO THE
NW-N AS A WARM FRONT FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEKEND WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE POSSIBLY DEVELOPING ALONG IT IN THE
WESTERN GULF. INITIALLY ONLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL FOLLOW THIS NEXT COLD FRONT...BUT A REINFORCING SURGE
OF COLDER AIR WILL INCREASE WINDS TO 20-25 KT OVER THE NW GULF ON
WED WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8-9 FT. THOSE HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS WILL 
DIMINISH AND SUBSIDE FRI INTO SAT.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 65W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST. MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVES
PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A STRONG ATLC RIDGE REMAINS N OF THE AREA ALONG 30N. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE PANAMANIAN/COLOMBIAN LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OF 25-30 KT NEAR THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE EAST AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH LIGHTER WINDS ACROSS THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN. SEAS WILL BE UP TO 10-11 FT NEAR THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA WITH 7-10 FT SEAS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.

IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND 7-9 FT SEAS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO
UP TO 10 FT SAT WITH REINFORCING NE-E SWELL ARRIVING.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST. MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVES
PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A STRONG RIDGE EXTENDING FROM E TO W ALONG 30N CONTINUES TO
DOMINATE THE FORECAST REGION. LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE SE WINDS
ARE N OF 27N WITH SEAS OF 4-7 FT IN E-SE SWELL. S OF 27N...
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH E-SE WINDS AND 6-9 FT SEAS ARE PRESENT
OUTSIDE THE BAHAMAS...WITH 1-3 FT SEAS INSIDE THE BAHAMAS. THESE
MARINE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

OTHER THAN THE RIDGE...THE ONLY FEATURE OF SIGNIFICANCE EXPECTED
TO IMPACT THE BASIN THROUGH THE WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND IS
A WEAK COLD FRONT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH THE NW PORTION
OF THE AREA WED EVENING REACHING FROM NEAR 31N74W TO S CENTRAL
FLORIDA BY THU WHERE IT WILL STALL...THEN WILL LIFT SLOWLY NW AS
A WARM FRONT THROUGH LATE FRI...LINGERING OVER THE NW CORNER
THROUGH SAT. EXPECT ONLY BRIEF PERIODS OF MODERATE TO FRESH
NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE WEAK COLD FRONT.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...NONE.
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...NONE.
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.