000
AGXX40 KNHC 040729
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
229 AM EST TUE FEB 4 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST. MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVES
PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

THE COLD FRONT THAT BROUGHT MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE WEST
CENTRAL GULF WATERS ON MON MORNING HAS STALLED AND NOW EXTENDS AS
A STATIONARY FRONT FROM THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO 24N94W TO
THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N96W. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
NE TO E WINDS ARE NOTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...WINDS
WILL RAPIDLY VEER TO THE SE AND S ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN TODAY
AS THE FRONT RAPIDLY MOVES BACK TO THE NW AS A WARM FRONT DURING
THE MORNING HOURS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS LATER TODAY...THEN REACH FROM W FLORIDA PANHANDLE
TO TAMPICO MEXICO WED...THEN STALL THU MORNING THROUGH FRI MORNING
FROM NEAR SARASOTA FLORIDA TO 23N97W TO W BAY OF CAMPECHE...BEFORE
DRIFTING N AND INTO THE N GULF COASTAL WATERS THROUGH LATE SAT.
INITIALLY MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE NEXT
FRONT. A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE BY WED
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT INCREASING WINDS TO FRESH TO STRONG
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY THROUGH LATE THU. EXPECT BUILDING SEAS OF 8-9
FT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 65W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST. MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVES
PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A RIDGE PERSIST N OF THE AREA ALONG 30N. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE RIDGE AND THE PANAMANIAN/COLOMBIAN LOW CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OF 25-30 KT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA
DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS. MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE EAST AND CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN WITH LIGHTER WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. SEAS
WILL BE UP TO 10-11 FT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WITH 7-10 FT
SEAS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.

IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND 7-10 FT SEAS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST. MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVES
PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A STRONG RIDGE EXTENDING FROM E TO W ALONG 30N DOMINATES THE
FORECAST REGION. MAINLY LIGHT WINDS ARE NOTED PER SCATTEROMETER
DATA N OF 27N WITH SEAS OF 4-6 FT IN E-SE SWELL. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OF 15-20
KT S OF 22N WHERE SEAS OF 8-9 FT ARE OBSERVED PER BUOY AND FEW
SHIP OBSERVATIONS OUTSIDE THE BAHAMAS. THESE MARINE CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

THE ONLY OTHER FEATURE OF SIGNIFICANCE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE BASIN
THROUGH THIS WEEK IS A WEAK COLD FRONT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO
REACH THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA WED EVENING AND MOVE SE...REACHING
FROM NEAR 31N74W TO S CENTRAL FLORIDA BY THU...WHERE IT WILL STALL...
THEN LIFT SLOWLY N TO NW AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH LATE FRI. MODERATE
TO FRESH SE TO S WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE
NW CORNER OF THE AREA TONIGHT.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...NONE.
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...NONE.
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.