000
AGXX40 KNHC 031834
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
134 PM EST MON FEB 3 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST. MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVES
PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE...THEN MEDIUM.

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
BORDER WITH ALABAMA AT 30N88W TO THE CENTRAL GULF AT 26N92W TO
NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO AT 18N95W. MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
HUGGING THE MEXICAN COAST S OF 25N W OF THE FRONT...ALTHOUGH THEY
ARE IN THE PROCESS OF DIMINISHING TO BELOW GALE FORCE. SEAS ARE
7-10 FT IN THIS SAME AREA. FRESH TO STRONG N-NE WINDS AND 4-7 FT
SEAS ARE ELSEWHERE W OF THE FRONT. CENTRAL ATLC RIDGING EXTENDS
ACROSS FLORIDA TO THE EASTERN GULF AND WINDS ARE MODERATE SE-S
WITH SEAS 2-4 FT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO INCH
A LITTLE MORE TO THE E BEFORE STALLING OUT TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TUE...THEN WILL RAPIDLY RETROGRADE BACK TO THE NW AS A WARM FRONT
BY EARLY TUE AND SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE ENTIRE
BASIN IN ITS WAKE. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS TUE NIGHT REACHING FROM SW FLORIDA TO NEAR TAMPICO
MEXICO LATE WED. INITIALLY MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
FOLLOW THE NEXT FRONT. A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR WILL
ARRIVE BY WED AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT INCREASING WINDS TO FRESH
TO STRONG BEHIND THE BOUNDARY THROUGH LATE WED. THE FRONT WILL
THEN MOVE BACK TO THE W-NW AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. MODEL GUIDANCE THEN STALLS IT OUT IN THE W CENTRAL AND FAR
NW GULF LATE FRI WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE POSSIBLE DEVELOPING ALONG
IT.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 65W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST. MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVES
PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A RIDGE N OF THE AREA ALONG 30N WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH TO
STRONG NE-E WINDS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE TO FRESH
WINDS AND MAINLY 4-7 FT SEAS ELSEWHERE. SEAS WILL BE UP TO 11-12
FT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WITH WINDS UP TO 30 KT DURING THE
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON TUE NIGHT...
WITH 7-10 FT SEAS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.

IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND 7-10 FT SEAS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST. MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVES
PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A STRONG RIDGE EXTENDING FROM E TO W ALONG 30N DOMINATES THE
FORECAST REGION. N OF 27N...SE-S LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND 4-6
FT SEAS WITH E-SE SWELL WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS (EXCEPT LOCALLY TO STRONG
NEAR THE APPROACHES TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE) AND 5-8 FT SEAS IN E
SWELL S OF 27N (EXCEPT 7-9 FT S OF 22N). IN THE BAHAMAS...LIGHT
TO MODERATE E-SE WINDS 1-3 FT SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

THE ONLY OTHER FEATURE OF SIGNIFICANCE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE
BASIN THROUGH THIS WEEK IS A WEAK COLD FRONT. THAT FRONT IS
FORECAST TO ENTER THE FAR NW PORTION LATE WED...STALLING FROM NEAR
31N72W TO E CENTRAL FLORIDA BY EARLY THU WHERE IT WILL LIKELY
LINGER THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...NONE.
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...NONE.
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.