000 AGXX40 KNHC 030743 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 243 AM EST MON FEB 3 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVES PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE...THEN MEDIUM. A COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED THE GULF OF MEXICO AND NOW EXTENDS FROM SE LOUISIANA TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO. THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS JUST OFFSHORE THE MEXICAN COAST FROM 22N TO 24N...ACROSS THE FAR WEST PART OF ZONE GMZ017. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20-30 KT ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE BEHIND THE FRONT. BUOYS ACROSS THE NW GULF BRIEFLY SHOWED SEAS OF 8-10 FT BUT HAS NOW DIMINISHED TO AROUND 8 FT AT 0600 UTC. THIS WILL BE A SHORT-LIVED GALE FORCE EVENT. A GALE WARNING WILL BE ISSUE WITH THE NEXT FORECAST PACKAGE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE LATE THIS MORNING. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM MOBILE AL TO NEAR VERACRUZ MEXICO THIS MORNING THEN STALL FROM THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE...BEFORE DRIFTING NW AND MOVING INLAND TUE MORNING. MODERATE TO FRESH SE RETURN FLOW COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH SEAS OF 3-5 FT EXCEPT 1-3 FT NEAR THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL AGAIN DOMINATE THE ENTIRE BASIN TUE. A SECOND PUSH OF COLD AIR WILL ALLOW THE FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE GULF WATERS LATE TUE REACHING FROM SW FLORIDA TO THE SW GULF BY LATE WED WHERE IT WILL LIKELY STALL THROUGH THU...LINGERING THROUGH EARLY FRI. STRONG HIGH PRES WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG N-NE WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. THE FRONT WILL THEN RETROGRADE TO THE W-NW BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRES WEAKENS AND MOVES FARTHER EAST. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVES PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A RIDGE ALONG 31N IS PRODUCING FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SIMILAR WIND SPEEDS ARE ALSO NOTED ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TODAY AND TUE...THEN WILL REBUILD ON WED. AS A RESULT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE CARIBBEAN WILL SLACKEN TODAY WITH FRESH TO STRONG TRADES BECOMING CONFINED TO NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA BY EARLY THIS MORNING. BY TUE...THE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS EXPANDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRI...EXPANDING EVEN MORE TO THE E CARIBBEAN BY LATE FRI INTO THE WEEKEND. ELSEWHERE...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. NE SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SEAS MAINLY IN THE 7-9 FT RANGE. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVES PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A STRONG RIDGE EXTENDING FROM E TO W ALONG 31N DOMINATES THE FORECAST REGION. A BELT OF FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS IS NOTED PER SCATTEROMETER DATA MAINLY S OF 23N E OF 76W. BUOY OBSERVATIONS OVER THE SE PORTION INDICATE 8-9 FT SEAS...WITH 4-7 FT SEAS ELSEWHERE. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TODAY AND TUE...THEN WILL REBUILD ON WED. AS A RESULT...WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE SOUTH WATERS TODAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA BY LATE WED...EXTENDING FROM NEAR 31N72W TO SOUTH FLORIDA LATE THU. THEN...THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK TO THE N EXITING THE FORECAST AREA BY FRI. MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA WITH ONLY MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS AND 4-7 FT SEAS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...GALE WARNING TODAY. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.