000
AGXX40 KNHC 021843
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
143 PM EST SUN FEB 2 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS/ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST. MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVES
PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE...THEN MEDIUM.

RIDGING EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS FROM CENTRAL ATLC
HIGH PRES. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SE RETURN FLOW COVERS THE
GULF WITH 4-6 FT SEAS IN THE SW GULF AND 1-3 FT IN THE NE GULF. 
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT
STALLING FROM NEAR MOBILE ALABAMA TO TAMPICO MEXICO BY MON. FRESH
TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...BUT WILL BE SHORT LIVED. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO
RETROGRADE AND MOVE NW MON NIGHT. RETURN FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE
WHOLE BASIN YET AGAIN BY EARLY TUE. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL
ENTER THE NW GULF LATE TUE REACHING FROM SW FLORIDA TO THE SW GULF
BY LATE WED WHERE IT WILL LIKELY STALL THROUGH THU...LINGERING
THROUGH EARLY FRI. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE FRESH TO
STRONG N-NE WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FRONT
WILL THEN RETROGRADE TO THE W-NW BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEKEND.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 65W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST. MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVES
PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A STRONG ATLC RIDGE ALONG 31N WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG TRADE
WINDS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY.
THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY MON AND TUE...THEN WILL REBUILD ON
WED. AS A RESULT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE CARIBBEAN WILL
SLACKEN TONIGHT WITH FRESH TO STRONG TRADES BECOMING CONFINED TO
NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA BY EARLY MON. BY TUE...THE GRADIENT
STRENGTHENS WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS EXPANDING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRI...EXPANDING EVEN MORE TO THE E
CARIBBEAN BY LATE FRI INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. ELSEWHERE...
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. NE SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TROPICAL
N ATLC WATERS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SEAS MAINLY IN
THE 7-9 FT RANGE.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST. MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVES
PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THE SW TAIL END OF A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS OVER THE FAR NW
CORNER OF THE BASIN AND IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT. A
STRONG RIDGE EXTENDING FROM E TO W ALONG 31N DOMINATES THE
FORECAST REGION. A BELT OF FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS IS NOTED
PER SCATTEROMETER DATA MAINLY S OF 25N E OF 75W. BUOY OBERVATIONS
OVERTHE SE PORTION INDICATE 8-11 FT SEAS...WITH 4-7 FT SEAS
ELSEWHERE. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY MON AND TUE...THEN WILL
REBUILD ON WED. AS A RESULT...WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS
THE SOUTH WATERS TONIGHT INTO MON. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE NW PORTION BY LATE WED...EXTENDING FROM NEAR 31N76W
TO E CENTRAL FLORIDA THU...STALLING FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS FRI...THEN LIFTING N AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND AS CENTRAL ATLC HIGH
PRESSURE AND RIDGING REBUILD. ONLY MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS AND
4-7 FT SEAS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

INSIDE THE BAHAMAS...LIGHT TO MODERATE SE FLOW AND 1-3 FT SEAS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH LATE WED...THEN NE-E THU INTO EARLY FRI AS THE
FRONT HANGS OUT OVER THE AREA...THEN BACK TO E-SE LATE FRI INTO
SAT AS THE RIDGE REBUILDS.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...NONE.
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...NONE.
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.