000
AGXX40 KNHC 020725
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
225 AM EST SUN FEB 2 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST. MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVES
PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE...THEN MEDIUM.

A WEAK AND DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS FAR NE WATERS AND
N FLORIDA WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT N AND INLAND BECOMING DIFFUSE
TODAY. HIGH PRES OVER THE SE CONUS EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE
GULF WATERS. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SE RETURN FLOW AND 4-6 FT
SEAS COVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE
SE WINDS AND SEAS OF 3-5 FT ARE NOTED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE GULF REGION. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS LATE TODAY...STALLING FROM NEAR MOBILE ALABAMA TO
TAMPICO MEXICO BY MON. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
QUICKLY FOLLOW THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...BUT WILL BE SHORT LIVED.
THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO RETROGRADE AND MOVE NW BY LATE MON.
RETURN FLOW DOMINATES THE WHOLE BASIN LATE MON INTO TUE. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW GULF LATE TUE INTO WED REACHING FROM
THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO NEAR TUXPAN MEXICO WED MORNING.
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES FRESH TO STRONG N-NE WINDS AND BUILDING
SEAS BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FORECAST IS FOR THE FRONT TO STALL FROM
NEAR SW FLORIDA TO THE SW GULF BY LATE WED INTO THU WHERE IT MAY
LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST FRI.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 65W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST. MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVES
PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A STRONG ATLC RIDGE ALONG ABOUT 31N WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG
TRADE WINDS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH TODAY. THE RIDGE
WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY MON AND TUE...THEN REBUILD ON WED. AS A
RESULT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE CARIBBEAN WILL WEAKEN BY
LATE TODAY WITH FRESH TO STRONG TRADES BECOMING CONFINED TO NEAR
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA TONIGHT INTO MON. BY TUE...THE GRADIENT
STRENGTHENS WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS EXPANDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN THROUGH THU. ELSEWHERE...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
TRADES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. NE SWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH SEAS MAINLY IN THE 7-9 FT RANGE.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST. MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVES
PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS OVER THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE BASIN AND
IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE LATER TODAY WHILE MOVING N OF AREA. A
STRONG RIDGE EXTENDING E TO W ALONG ABOUT 31N DOMINATES THE
FORECAST REGION. A BELT OF FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS IS NOTED
PER SCATTEROMETER DATA MAINLY S OF 24N E OF 75W. AN EARLIER
ALTIMETER PASS INDICATED SEAS OF AROUND 11 FT ACROSS THE EAST PART
OF ZONE AMZ127. BUOY 41004 ALSO CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF THESE
SEA HEIGHTS. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY MON AND TUE...THEN
REBUILD ON WED. AS A RESULT...WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS
THE SOUTH WATERS TONIGHT INTO MON. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE NW PORTION BY LATE WED...EXTENDING FROM NEAR 31N72W
TO SOUTH FLORIDA THU EVENING. ONLY MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WHICH IS FORECAST TO STALL AND
MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH BY FRI.

INSIDE THE BAHAMAS...LIGHT TO MODERATE SE FLOW AND 1-3 FT SEAS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...NONE.
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...NONE.
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.