000
AGXX40 KNHC 011810
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
110 PM EST SAT FEB 1 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST. MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVES
PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE...THEN MEDIUM.

A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 29N83W TO 24N86W WILL BECOME DIFFUSE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ARE IN THE
E GULF IN THE VICINITY OF THE DYING FRONT ALONG WITH 1-3 FT SEAS.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SE RETURN FLOW AND 4-6 FT SEAS COVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF...EXCEPT UP TO 7 FT IN THE TEXAS COASTAL
WATERS. RETURN FLOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF TONIGHT
INTO SUN. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE TEXAS COASTAL
WATERS LATE SUN...STALLING FROM NEAR MOBILE ALABAMA TO TAMPICO
MEXICO BY MON. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW
THE FRONTS PASSAGE...BUT WILL BE SHORT LIVED. THE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO RETROGRADE AND MOVE NW BY LATE MON. RETURN FLOW
DOMINATES THE WHOLE BASIN LATE MON INTO TUE. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
WILL ENTER THE NW GULF LATE TUE INTO WED. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES
FRESH TO STRONG N-NE WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS BEHIND THE FRONT
INITIALLY...WHICH IS NOT AS STRONG AS PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS FROM
1-2 DAYS AGO. SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN BETWEEN THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND UKMET RESULTING IN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THE
FORECAST IS FOR THE FRONT TO STALL FROM NEAR SW FLORIDA TO THE SW
GULF BY LATE WED INTO THU WHERE IT MAY LINGER THROUGH THE END OF
NEXT WEEK.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 65W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST. MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVES
PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR 32N45W EXTENDS A RIDGE
WESTWARD ALONG 31N-32N TO 73W WHERE IT WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
SUN. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADES IN THE
EASTERN AND S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH SUN...WITH STRONG TO
MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA THIS MORNING
(NOW DIMINISHED BELOW GALE FORCE). SEAS WERE UP TO 10-15 FT NEAR
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA DUE TO THE GALE FORCE WINDS...ALTHOUGH THEY
ARE SUBSIDING SLIGHTLY NOW. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
CARIBBEAN WILL WEAKEN BY LATE SUN WITH FRESH TO STRONG TRADES
BECOMING CONFINED TO NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA LATE SUN INTO MON.
BY TUE...THE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS
EXPANDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THU. ELSEWHERE...
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. NE SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TROPICAL N
ATLC WATERS THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH SEAS OF 8-10 FT N OF 15N AND
SEAS OF 7-9 FT S OF 15N.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST. MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVES
PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS OVER THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE BASIN
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS IN ITS VICINITY. THIS
FEATURE IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OR MOVE JUST NW OF THE AREA LATER
TODAY. OTHERWISE 1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR 32N45W
EXTENDS A RIDGE WESTWARD ALONG 31N-32N TO 73W. MODERATE SE-S WINDS
AND 4-7 FT SEAS DOMINATE THE WATERS N OF 27N...WITH MODERATE TO
FRESH (LOCALLY STRONG) E-SE WINDS AND 7-11 FT SEAS S OF 27N. THE
ATLC RIDGING IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY BY LATE SAT ALLOWING
FOR WINDS N OF 27N TO DIMINISH TO LIGHT TO MODERATE LEVELS WITH
4-6 FT SEAS THROUGH WED...AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WITH 6-9
FT SEAS S OF 27N. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NW PORTION
BY LATE WED...EXTENDING FROM NEAR 31N70W TO NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL
FLORIDA BY LATE THU. INITIALLY ONLY MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT...INCREASING TO FRESH TO STRONG BY LATE
THU WHEN A REINFORCING SURGE MOVES IN.

INSIDE THE BAHAMAS...LIGHT TO MODERATE SE FLOW AND 1-3 FT SEAS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...NONE.
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...NONE.
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.