000
AGXX40 KNHC 311812
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
112 PM EST FRI JAN 31 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST. MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVES
PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO EXTEND FROM THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA TO THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA. LATEST BUOY AND SHIP
OBSERVATIONS INDICATED THAT WINDS ARE MODERATE TO FRESH E-SE
ACROSS THE NW GULF ALONG WITH 3-5 FT SEAS...EXCEPT 1-3 FT IN THE
NE GULF...WITH MODERATE TO FRESH NE-E WINDS 3-5 FT ACROSS THE SE
GULF. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY WITH
THE REMNANTS BEGINNING TO RETROGRADE/SHIFT NW THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH SAT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH ACROSS THE 
BASIN. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IN THE NW GULF WILL SPREAD OVER THE
ENTIRE GULF BASIN SAT AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THAT FRONT IS
FORECAST TO REACH THE COAST OF TEXAS LATE SUN...EXTENDING FROM
MOBILE AL TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO BY MON MORNING WHERE IT WILL
STALL...THEN WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT NW AND INLAND ON TUE. MODERATE
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE YET AGAIN ACROSS THE
ENTIRE GULF REGION TUE WITH SEAS IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS EARLY
WED...QUICKLY REACHING FROM SW FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY
LATE WED. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS
AND BUILDING SEAS BEHIND THAT FRONT...WITH MINIMAL GALE FORCE
WINDS POSSIBLE IN GMZ023 BY THU MORNING (JUST BEYOND THE CURRENT
OFF FORECAST).

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 65W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST. MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVES
PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PREVAILS N-NE OF THE AREA. THE TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG TRADES IN THE EASTERN AND S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE
WINDS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA REACHING MINIMAL GALES DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS TODAY AND SAT. AN OVERNIGHT ASCAT PASS
PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF 30-35 KT NE TO E WINDS ACROSS THAT AREA
WITH 20-30 KT WINDS BLOWING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. EXPECT SEAS OF 13-15 FT DURING THE PERIODS OF GALE
FORCE WINDS. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. NE
SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST. MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVES
PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MODERATE N-NE WINDS AND 4-7 FT SEAS ARE W OF A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING FROM 31N73W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THIS FRONT IS
STARTING TO DRIFT TO THE NW AS CENTRAL ATLC HIGH PRES STRENGTHENS
INTO THE AREA FROM THE E. SE OF THE FRONT...MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH E-SE WINDS AND 4-7 FT SEAS ARE PRESENT...EXCEPT 7-9 FT IN
AMZ127. THE FRONT WILL MERGE WITH A COASTAL TROUGH TONIGHT WHICH
IS CURRENTLY ORIENTED ALONG THE GULF STREAM. THE COMBINED/MERGED
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE NW OF THE AREA BY SAT MORNING AS CENTRAL ATLC
RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE E. THAT RIDGING WILL HOLD IN PLACE
THROUGH NEXT WED MORNING WITH MODERATE E-SE WINDS AND 4-7 FT SEAS
N OF 26N...AND MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND 7-9 FT SEAS S OF 26N...
EXCEPT FRESH TO STRONG AND 7-10 FT LATER TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SUN. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT FINALLY
APPROACHES THE NW PORTION OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS BY LATE WED INTO
THU.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...NONE.
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...NONE.
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...GALE WARNING.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.