000
AGXX40 KNHC 310754
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
254 AM EST FRI JAN 31 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST.
MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVES.

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE NE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS FRESH NE WINDS WITHIN
AROUND 90 NM N OF FRONT MAINLY BETWEEN 87W AND 92W WITH SEAS OF
8-9 FT. ELSEWHERE...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS ARE NOTED WITH
SEAS OF 4-7 FT S OF 25N...AND 2-4 N OF 25N...EXCEPT ACROSS THE NW
CORNER OF THE GULF WHERE BUOY AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SEAS
OF 5 FT. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN TODAY AND THE REMNANTS WILL BEGIN
TO SHIFT NW THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH ACROSS BASIN. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW HAS ALREADY
SET UP OVER THE NW PART AND WILL SPREAD OVER THE ENTIRE GULF SAT
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST TO REACH THE COAST OF TEXAS
LATE SUN. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM MOBILE AL TO NEAR TAMPICO
MEXICO BY MON MORNING...WHERE IT WILL STALL...THEN BEGIN TO DRIFT
NW AND INLAND ON TUE. ON THIS DAY...MODERATE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE AGAIN THE ENTIRE GULF REGION WITH SEAS IN
THE 3-5 FT RANGE.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 65W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST.
MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVES.

A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PREVAILS N OF THE AREA. THE TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT RESULTING S OF THE STRONG RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN 
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADES IN THE EASTERN AND S CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH
STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA REACHING
MINIMAL GALES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TODAY AND SAT. THE
MOST RECENT ASCAT PASS PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF 30-35 KT NE TO E
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 72W AND 75W. WINDS
OF 20-30 KT ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. EXPECT SEAS OF 14-15 FT DURING THE PERIODS OF GALE
FORCE WINDS. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. 
NE SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST.
MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVES.

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N73W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.
BEHIND THE FRONT A WEAK LOW PRES OF 1018 MB HAS DEVELOPED AND IS
LOCATED NEAR 30.5N79W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH TO NEAR 27N80W.
NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 KT AND SEAS TO 8 FT ARE OBSERVED ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE LOW CENTER...PARTICULARLY N OF 30N. THE LOW PRES IS
FORECAST TO DISSIPATE IN ABOUT 24 HOURS WHILE MOVING NE. THE FRONT
WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT NW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE SW N
ATLC MOVING N OF AREA BY SAT MORNING. ELSEWHERE A RIDGE DOMINATES
THE FORECAST REGION PRODUCING MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS S OF 22N AND
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ELSEWHERE. NE SWELL WILL SPREAD ACROSS
THE SOUTH WATERS E OF THE BAHAMAS BUILDING SEAS TO AROUND 10 FT BY
SAT MORNING...AND TO 11 FT LATER ON SAT. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
BUILD WESTWARD ACROSS THE SW N ATLC THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
IMPEDING THE ENTRANCE OF THE NEXT FRONT INTO THE AREA.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...NONE.
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...NONE.
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...GALE WARNING TODAY.
         GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO SAT. 
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.