000 AGXX40 KNHC 300713 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 213 AM EST THU JAN 30 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WIND THROUGH SAT THEN ECMWF ON SUN AND MON. BLEND OF EC WAVE AND PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SAT THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE SUN AND MON. THE MWW3 IS TOO FAST TO SUBSIDE THE SEAS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COMPARED TO OBSERVATIONS. THE MWW3 IS RUNNING 1-3 FT LOW IN THE SOUTHERN GULF WHERE THE HIGHEST SEAS CURRENTLY RESIDE. THE EC WAVEIS DOING BETTER COMPARED TO THE OBSERVATIONS. THEREFORE...THE WAVE FORECAST WAS ADJUSTED TOWARDS THE SLOWER SUBSIDING EC WAVE FOR THE CURRENT WIND EVENT OVER THE GULF. BY FRI NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS WILL HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SO THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE MWW3 FORECAST IS REASONABLE DURING THAT TIME. AS FOR WINDS...THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE PATTERN. GALE FORCE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED IN THE SW GULF ACCORDING TO THE 0400 UTC ASCAT-A PASS. HIGH PRES OVER THE GULF WEAKENS AND SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED IN THE WESTERN GULF TODAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT ENTERS MOVE INTO THE NW GULF ON SUN. THE GFS IS APPROXIMATELY 6 HOURS FASTER DROPPING THE FRONT S INTO THE GULF THAN THE ECMWF AND UKMET ON SUN. THE NAVGEM AND 00Z GEFS ALSO SUPPORT A SLOWER SOLUTION. WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TOWARD THE ECMWF AND EC WAVE ON SUN AN MON AS A RESULT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WIND. MWW3 BLENDED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WAVES WITH THE NWPS ALSO THROWN IN FOR THE CARIBBEAN. HIGH CONFIDENCE. GALE WINDS ARE BELIEVED TO HAVE BEGUN ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE 0406 UTC OSCAT PASS SHOWED WINDS NEAR GALE FORCE...AND THE PERIOD OF PEAK DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT OF WIND ALONG THE COAST IS JUST BEGINNING. THE STRONGER GFS...AS USUAL...IS BETTER INITIALIZED HERE. THE 00Z GFS FORECAST CALLS FOR WINDS TO PULSE TO GALE FORCE IN THE MORNING HOURS THOUGH SUN MORNING. HAVE NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THIS SCENARIO. THE NWPS IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH WAVES INDUCED IN THE GALE AREA THAN THE MWW3. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL BLEND IN THE NWPS IN THE CARIBBEAN. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...THE 00Z ECMWF IS DEEPER THAN THE GFS WITH THE UPPER LOW E OF THE AREA AND IS GENERALLY WEAKER WITH THE TRADES IN THE ATLC THAN THE GFS. THE ECMWF IS ALSO MORE WESTERLY WITH THE LOW CENTER OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MON. AS A RESULT...THE EC WAVE SUBSIDES THE NE SWELL MORE RAPIDLY FROM S TO N THAN THE MWW3. THE OTHER MODELS LOOK MORE LIKE THE GFS. WILL STICK WITH THE GFS/MWW3 HERE TO ADJUST THE FORECAST. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS BLENDED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WINDS. MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WAVES. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS HAVE DIMINISHED NEAR THE COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM 31N70W THROUGH THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL ESSENTIALLY STALL AS A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES RIPPLE ALONG IT...WITH THE FRONT EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING SAT. STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT TO THE SE PORTION FRI INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRES BUILDS ALONG 30N AND TROUGHING INITIATED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL N ATLC WILL INCREASE WELL S OF THE AREA. AS MENTIONED IN THE SECTION ABOVE...THE GFS SEEMS TO BETTER REPRESENT THE MODEL CONSENSUS THAN THE ECMWF. THE GFS/MWW3 WILL BE USED TO ADJUST THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO TODAY. GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO FRI. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.