000
AGXX40 KNHC 291905
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EST WED JAN 29 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SOUTH FLORIDA TO 22N90W WHERE IT BECOMES
STATIONARY TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 18N94W. SCATTEROMETER AND
SURFACE DATA SHOW GALE FORCE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS ZONES
GMZ011 AND GMZ023 WHERE A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT. FRESH TO
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE BEHIND THE FRONT. SEAS
HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND 15 FT ACROSS THE SW GULF...WITH BUOY
42055 LOCATED NEAR 22N94W REPORTING 14 FT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE ACROSS THE W CENTRAL GULF THIS AFTERNOON
AND ACROSS THE SW GULF LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
HIGH PRES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE THE GULF WATERS
ON THU WHILE THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY SE AND WEAKEN.
THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE FAR SOUTH PORTION BY THU NIGHT.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE TEXAS COAST FRI AND SPREAD
OVER THE ENTIRE GULF SAT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE TEXAS COAST LATE SUN.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 65W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG
TRADES IN THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE MAJORITY
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS OFF
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...REACHING MINIMAL GALES DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS OF THU...FRI...AND SAT. THE MOST RECENT ASCAT PASS
PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF 25-30 WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN...PARTICULARLY FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W. THE GFS
GLOBAL MODEL CALLS FOR GALES AT 0600 UTC THU MORNING AND ALLOWS
WINDS TO PULSE TO GALE FORCE IN THE MORNING HOURS THOUGH SUN
MORNING. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THAT AREA BEGINNING LATE
TONIGHT. EXPECT BUILDING SEAS TO AROUND 14 FT IN THE GALE AREA.
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. NE SWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS
IN THE 8 TO 11 FT RANGE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH
THU NIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE
TO 8-9 FT FRI THROUGH SUN AS HIGH PRES NE OF AREA WEAKENS.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N76W TO 28N81W. SCATTEROMETER DATA
SHOW FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WITHIN AROUND 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE FRONT N OF 30N...WITH STRONGER WINDS JUST N OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE FRONT WILL LIE FROM 31N70W TO SOUTH FLORIDA THIS EVENING
THEN RETROGRADE NW TONIGHT AS WEAK LOW PRES DEVELOPS ALONG THE
FRONT N OF THE BAHAMAS AND MOVES SLOWLY NE THROUGH THU NIGHT. THE
FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE FROM 31N69W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS
BY LATE FRI. A RE-INFORCING COLD FRONT WILL CLIP THE FAR NW PART
OF THE AREA BY FRI. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD ALONG 30N OVER THE
WEEKEND. EXPECT FRESH EASTERLY WINDS ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE...MAINLY SOUTH OF 23N-24N WITH BUILDING SEAS TO 10-11 FT
E OF THE BAHAMAS.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...GALE WARNING TODAY.
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...GALE WARNING TODAY.
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU NIGHT INTO FRI. 
         GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. 
         GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO THU. 
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.