000 AGXX40 KNHC 290758 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 258 AM EST WED JAN 29 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WIND. BLEND OF EC WAVE AND PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WAVES THROUGH THU...THEN BLEND OF MWW3 AND PREVIOUS FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE 00Z MWW3 IS APPROXIMATELY 2 FT TOO LOW WITH SEAS AT MOST OF THE OBSERVATION LOCATIONS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS MORNING. THE 00Z EC WAVE IS SIGNIFICANTLY BETTER INITIALIZED THAN THE MWW3 COMPARED TO OBSERVATIONS. THE WAVE FORECAST WAS ADJUSTED TOWARDS THE SLOWER SUBSIDING EC WAVE FOR THE CURRENT WIND EVENT OVER THE GULF. BY FRI...WINDS AND SEAS WILL HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SO THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE MWW3 FORECAST IS REASONABLE DURING THAT TIME. AS FOR WINDS...THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE PATTERN. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE BELIEVED TO HAVE BEGUN OFF THE W CENTRAL GULF COAST AND WILL SHIFT INTO THE SOUTHWEST GULF LATER THIS MORNING. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE ON DROPPING THE WINDS BELOW GALE FORCE BY 00Z TONIGHT...AND THE 00Z GEFS SHOWS NO CHANCE OF GALE BY 00Z. HIGH PRES OVER THE GULF WEAKENS AND SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED IN THE WESTERN GULF THU. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THE NEXT COLD FRONT PUSHING OFF THE TEXAS COAST BY MON EVENING. THE GFS WINDS WILL BE USED TO ADJUST THE FORECAST. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WIND IN THE CARIBBEAN. BLEND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC. MWW3 AND NWPS BLENDED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WAVES IN THE CARIBBEAN. MWW3/EC WAVE PREFERRED OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THE PROBLEM OF THE DAY IN THE CARIBBEAN IS WHEN TO START THE GALE WARNING ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE OSCAT PASS FROM 0454 UTC SHOWS NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ALREADY IN PLACE NEAR 12N75W. THE STRONGER GFS...AS USUAL...IS BETTER INITIALIZED HERE. THE 00Z GFS FORECAST FIRST CALL FOR GALES AT 0600 UTC THU MORNING AND ALLOWS WINDS TO PULSE TO GALE FORCE IN THE MORNING HOURS THOUGH SUN MORNING. HAVE NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THIS SCENARIO. THE NWPS IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH WAVES INDUCED IN THE GALE AREA THAN THE MWW3. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL BLEND IN MORE NWPS IN THE CARIBBEAN. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...THE 00Z ECMWF IS DEEPER THAN THE GFS WITH THE UPPER LOW E OF THE AREA AND IS GENERALLY WEAKER WITH THE TRADES IN THE ATLC THAN THE GFS. AS A RESULT...THE EC WAVE SUBSIDES THE NE SWELL MORE RAPIDLY FROM S TO N THAN THE MWW3. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS IS LOW HERE...SO A BLEND MWW3/GFS AND EC WAVE/ECMWF SEEMS REASONABLE. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS AND ECMWF BLENDED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WINDS. MWW3 AND EC WAVE BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WAVES. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON SENDING A SERIES OF WAVES NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT THAT EXTEND INTO THE SW N ATLC. THESE FINE FEATURES ARE NOT LIKELY TO BE WELL-RESOLVED BY THE MODELS. A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS SHOULD HELP TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY. WINDS AND SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT WILL DROP BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA ON THU. STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT TO THE SE PORTION FRI INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRES BUILDS ALONG 30N AND TROUGHING INITIATED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL N ATLC WILL INCREASE WELL S OF THE AREA. AS MENTIONED IN THE SECTION ABOVE...CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE DETAILS WITH THE UPPER LOW. A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST SEEMS PRUDENT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO TODAY. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...GALE WARNING TODAY INTO TONIGHT. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU NIGHT INTO FRI. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.