000 AGXX40 KNHC 281945 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 245 PM EST TUE JAN 28 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS BLEND WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WIND. 12Z NWPS AND PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE. FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE NE WINDS NW OF THE COLD FRONT ARE RAPIDLY INCREASING WAVE HEIGHTS. BY 1900 UTC...BUOY 42020 IS REPORTING 10 FT...ABOUT 2 FT HIGHER THAN PREDICTED BY MWW3. NWPS...PRIMARY WAVE GUIDANCE USED TODAY...IS CLOSER TO REALITY...BUT ABOUT 1 FT TOO LOW. AS THE WESTERN END OF THE FRONT PROGRESSES QUICKLY ALONG THE MEXICAN EAST COAST...HIGH WINDS WILL FUNNEL SOUTHWARD AIDED BY THE HIGH TOPOGRAPHY OF MEXICO. ALL GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING LOW-END GALE FORCE WINDS BEGINNING IN THE W CENTRAL GULF AROUND 00 UTC TONIGHT AND REACHING THE SW GULF AROUND 12 UTC TOMORROW MORNING. EVENT UNLIKELY TO REACH STORM FORCE AS HIGHEST MODEL SOLUTION IS FROM UKMET SUGGESTING 40 KT PEAK AT 12 UTC. FORCING FOR THIS EVENT SHOULD BE SHORT- LIVED...HOWEVER... AND DROP BELOW GALE AROUND 00 UTC THU. WINDS ACROSS THE GULF SHOULD DROP TO 20 KT OR LESS AS EARLY AS 06 UTC THU. WAVEHEIGHTS ARE PROJECTED TO PEAK AROUND 16 FT IN THE SW GULF AT 18 UTC. A FEW DAYS OF QUIESCENT CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED WITH WINDS VEERING BUT NOT INCREASING TO 25 KT THROUGH SUN. LATE SUN AND EARLY MON THE NEXT FRONT WILL REACH THE NW GULF...BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE NEARLY AS STRONG AS CURRENT EVENT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS BLEND WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WIND. 12Z NWPS AND PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WAVES. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. GENERALLY MODERATE TO STRONG BREEZE E TO NE TRADEWINDS DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN TODAY. THE EXCEPTION...AS IS USUAL THIS TIME OF YEAR...ARE THE NEAR GALE NE WINDS JUST NORTH OF COLOMBIA AS SEEN FROM THE 1110 UTC WINDSAT PASS. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL WASH OUT BEFORE REACHING THE CARIBBEAN....SO NO ENHANCEMENT OF WINDS OR SEAS ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER...THE SYNOPTIC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SOME AND BRING LOW-END GALE CONDITIONS NORTH OF COLOMBIA FRI NIGHT-SAT MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN THIS SOLUTION IS LOW...HOWEVER...AS ONLY THE GFS INDICATES GALE FORCE WINDS WILL OCCUR...WHILE THE REMAINING GUIDANCE SUGGESTS NEAR GALES. WAVEHEIGHTS ARE CURRENTLY PEAKING AROUND 10 FT NORTH OF COLOMBIA...BUT ARE ANTICIPATED TO REACH ABOUT 15 FT FRI NIGHT-SAT MORNING. TRADEWINDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY STRONG THROUGH MON. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...STRONG TRADE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE NE OF THE AREA BEGAN TO WEAKEN THE SURFACE RIDGING. THE ECMWF IS DEEPER THAN THE GFS WITH THIS LOW AND GENERALLY WEAKER WITH THE TRADES IN THE ATLC THAN THE GFS. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS IS LOW HERE...SO A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUSLY PREFERRED GFS AND THE ECMWF SEEMS REASONABLE. THIS BLEND IS ALSO PREFERRED WITH THE PATTERN TO THE N WHICH IS GENERATING SOME OF THE SWELL MOVING INTO THE REGION. NE SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SEAS OVER 8 FT THROUGH THU...WITH SEAS BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE FRI. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS BLEND WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WIND. 12Z NWPS AND PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE MODELS AGREE ON DEVELOPING A LOW PRES SYSTEM N OF THE BAHAMAS TUE AND CARRY IT OFF TO THE NE...BUT HOLD THE COLD FRONT BACK AND THE MAIN ENERGY LAGS TO THE W. THE MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE TROUGHING DEVELOPING N OF THE BAHAMAS THU AS THE MID-LEVEL SYSTEM PUSHES E. A BLEND OF THE ECMWF WITH THE PREVIOUSLY PREFERRED GFS SOLUTION SHOULD HELP TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY. THE GFS IS FASTER TO BUILD HIGH PRES OVER NW WATERS BEHIND THIS TROUGHING LATE THU INTO FRI THAN THE ECMWF. IT STILL APPEARS TO BE ON THE FAST SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE BY THAT TIME. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO WED. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...GALE WARNING WED INTO WED NIGHT. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LANDSEA/SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.