000 AGXX40 KNHC 270742 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 242 AM EST MON JAN 27 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: ECMWF BLEND WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WIND. MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST AND ADJUSTED FOR WINDS FOR WAVES. RETURN FLOW IS BEGINNING TO PICK UP IN THE WESTERN GULF AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO NW WATERS TODAY. AS NOTED BY WPC...THE 00Z GFS HAS TRENDED SLOWER TOWARD THE MORE CONSISTENTLY SLOW ECMWF AND UKMET WITH RESPECT TO THE CLOSED LOW THAT IS FORECAST TO REACH BAJA/MEXICO ON TUE. PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE GFS HAVE INDICATED A CONSIDERABLY MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION...WITH THE CLOSED LOW OPENING UP AND SHEARING OUT ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND THEN DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND GULF COAST. THE ECMWF AND THE UKMET HAVE INSISTED ON A SLOWER SOLUTION...WITH A CLOSED LOW MAINTAINING INTEGRITY IN THE VICINITY OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE 00Z ECMWF IS NOW A COMPROMISE SOLUTION BETWEEN THE 00Z GFS AND THE SLOWER UKMET. BASED ON THEIR STRONGER CONSISTENCY AND CLUSTERING...COUPLED WITH THE TRENDS OF THE GFS...WILL FAVOR THE 00Z ECMWF FOR WINDS. THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF ON WED NIGHT AND TRACKS IT EASTWARD THU. WITH LIMITED COVERAGE OVER THE GULF...THE EC WAVE IS NOT A VIABLE SOLUTION FOR POPULATING THE GRIDS. ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE MADE TO THE MWW3 TO ACCOUNT FOR THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WINDS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WIND. MWW3 AND NWPS BLENDED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WAVES IN THE CARIBBEAN. MWW3/EC WAVE BLENDED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC. THE FEATURE OF MOST CONCERN IN THE FORECAST PERIOD IS THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST N OF THE NW CARIBBEAN WED/THU. THE GULF OF MEXICO SECTION EXPLAINS THAT THE ECMWF IS THE MODEL OF CHOICE WITH THIS FRONT. THE ECMWF STALLS THE FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF BY WED NIGHT WHEN IT DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER THE SW GULF AND TRACKS IT EASTWARD THU. MEANWHILE...THE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN GRADUALLY INCREASES THROUGH WED AND THE FRESH TO STRONG ATLC TRADE WINDS BLEED INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TODAY REGARDLESS OF THE MODEL CHOICE. FOR WAVES...THE MWW3/NWPS SEEMS REASONABLE IN MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...NE SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SEAS OVER 8 FT THROUGH WED...WITH SEAS BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE THU. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE NE BEGINS TO WEAKEN THE SURFACE RIDGING. THE ECMWF HAS A REASONABLE HANDLE ON THE PATTERN HERE...AND ITS SOLUTION IS FAVORED FOR THE PATTERN TO THE N WHICH IS GENERATING SWELL MOVING INTO THE REGION. THEREFORE...THE EC WAVE WAS ADDED TO THE MIX WHEN DEVELOPING THE WAVE FORECAST. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: ECMWF BLENDED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WINDS. EC WAVE BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WAVES. AS STATED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO SECTION...THE ECMWF IS PREFERRED WITH THE UPSTREAM PATTERN INCLUDING THE UPPER LOW PASSING THROUGH MEXICO TUE/WED. THE PROGRESSIVE 00Z GFS ALLOWS THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM TO COME EASTWARD IN PIECES. THE MODELS AGREE ON DEVELOPING A LOW PRES SYSTEM N OF THE BAHAMAS LATE TUE...BUT THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY MORE W WITH THE LOW AND ITS TRACK TO THE NE THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS...SLOWING DOWN THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE COLD FRONT OVER THE SW N ATLC. THE GFS IS ALSO FASTER TO MOVE A FRONTAL WAVE OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO THU AND CARRY IT NE FROM THE BAHAMAS COMPARED TO THE OTHER 00Z MODELS...WITH THE ECMWF SEEMINGLY A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE SLOWER UKMET. THE ECMWF WAS USED TO ADJUST THE WIND FIELD AND THE EC WAVE WAS USED TO ADJUST THE WAVE FIELD. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT INTO WED. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED INTO WED NIGHT. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.