000
AGXX40 KNHC 261846
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
146 PM EST SUN JAN 26 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MWW3
BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST AND ADJUSTED FOR WINDS FOR WAVES.

HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. LATEST SATELLITE
DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA
DEPICT MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OVER THE W GULF
WITH LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF. SEAS ARE IN THE
3-5 FT RANGE OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND 1-2 FT RANGE OVER THE
EASTERN GULF. MODELS ARE STARTING TO COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE
TIMING OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW
GULF WATERS MONDAY AND SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
THROUGH EARLY TUE BEFORE A REINFORCING SURGE TUE NIGHT PUSHES THE
FRONT INTO THE SE GULF WED. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THE REINFORCING SURGE TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED OVER THE SW GULF.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 65W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MWW3
BLENDED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND ADJUSTED FOR WIND FOR WAVES.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THAT HAS PREVAILED N OF THE AREA OVER THE SW N
ATLC HAS RETREATED EASTWARD. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND
SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT MODERATE TO
STRONG WINDS CONFINED TO THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN JUST OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. ELSEWHERE MODERATE TO
FRESH WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AS
WELL AS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC. GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. SEAS OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ARE IN THE 6-8 FT RANGE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH 4-6 FT SEAS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEAS IN THE 5-7 FT RANGE
PREVAIL OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND 3-5 FT OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN. NE SWELL WITH SEAS IN THE 7-9 FT RANGE PREVAIL OVER THE
TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK
WESTWARD N OF THE AREA IN THE SW N ATLC WATERS THROUGH MON. THIS
WILL INCREASE COVERAGE OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER THE FORECAST
AREA FROM THE TROPICAL N ATLC TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FOR MUCH OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. WITH COVERAGE OF FRESH TRADES EXPANDING OVER
THE CARIBBEAN WATERS...THE AREAL EXTENT OF 8 FT SEAS WILL EXPAND
TO COVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN MON THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. NE SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE TROPICAL N
ATLC WATERS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR
WINDS. MWW3 WAVE BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WAVES.

A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN WATERS
WITH A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 31N60W TO EASTERN CUBA. THIS MORNINGS
ASCAT PASS INDICATED WINDS OVER THE NW WATERS HAVE DIMINISHED
BELOW GALE FORCE. OTHERWISE LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND
SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP AND BUOY DATA DEPICT GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS
OVER THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN REGION WITH LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS
OVER THE CENTRAL REGION. SEAS ARE IN THE 10-12 FT RANGE IN NW
SWELL OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS E OF 75W. SEAS IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE
PREVAIL OVER THE NW WATERS WITH 5-7 FT SEAS PREVAILING ELSEWHERE E
OF THE BAHAMAS. W OF THE BAHAMAS SEAS IN THE 1-3 FT RANGE PREVAIL.
THE COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT. WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE TO
THE EAST BUILDING WESTWARD...THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE BAHAMAS THROUGH MON BEFORE DISSIPATING. A NEW
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS LATE MON/EARLY TUE. THE
FRONT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONFINED TO THE WESTERN WATERS.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT INTO WED. 
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT INTO WED NIGHT. 
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.