000 AGXX40 KNHC 260731 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 231 AM EST SUN JAN 26 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH TUE NIGHT...THEN ECMWF BLEND WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WIND. MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST AND ADJUSTED FOR WINDS FOR WAVES. A GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE PREVAILS OVER THE GULF. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL INTO NW WATERS MON. THE 00Z GLOBAL GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND THE FRESH TO STRONG NE BREEZE BEHIND IT MON AND TUE. THE GFS SEEMS REASONABLE. THE NWPS CONTINUES TO NOT RAISE WAVE HEIGHTS FAST ENOUGH AS WINDS INCREASE BEHIND THIS FRONT. THEREFORE...THE MWW3 WAS RELIED ON MORE HEAVILY FOR WAVES. BY WED...THE MODELS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF AN UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH MEXICO...WITH THE ECMWF THE SLOWEST/DEEPEST SOLUTION AND THE GFS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE. PAST EXPERIENCE DICTATES THAT THE SLOWER/STRONGER SOLUTIONS ARE MORE LIKELY TO PREVAIL UNDER SUCH A PATTERN. THE TREND IN THE GFS IS FOR A SLOWER MOVING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE GULF WED/THU. WILL HEDGE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TOWARD THE 00Z ECMWF HERE. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WINDS THROUGH TUE NIGHT..THEN ECMWF BLEND WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. MWW3 BLENDED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND ADJUSTED FOR WIND FOR WAVES IN THE CARIBBEAN. MWW3/EC WAVE BLENDED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC. THE FEATURE OF MOST CONCERN IN THE FORECAST PERIOD IS THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO REACH THE NW CARIBBEAN WED. THE GULF OF MEXICO SECTION EXPLAINS THAT THE ECMWF IS THE MODEL OF CHOICE WITH THIS FRONT. THE ECMWF TAKES THE FRONT THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WED EVENING AND KEEPS WINDS ONLY AS STRONG AS A FRESH BREEZE BEHIND IT AS THE FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD THROUGH CUBA THU. MEANWHILE...THE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES IN THE CENTRAL GULF GRADUALLY INCREASES THROUGH WED REGARDLESS OF THE MODEL CHOICE. THEREFORE...WILL STICK WITH THE GFS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TUE NIGHT FOR WINDS. FOR WAVES...THE MWW3 SEEMS REASONABLE IN MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN UNTIL WED WHEN THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WAVES WILL BE MADE FOR THE PREFERRED ECMWF WIND FIELD. THE NWPS WAS NOT USED BECAUSE THE CHANGE IN THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WAS NOT IMPLEMENTED FOR THE 06Z NWPS RUN. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...NE SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SEAS OVER 8 FT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. TRADE WINDS WILL REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA SUN NIGHT AND MON MORNING AS HIGH PRES BUILDS N OF THE AREA...BUT SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE MON AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE NE BEGINS TO WEAKEN THE SURFACE RIDGING. THE ECMWF HAS A REASONABLE HANDLE ON THE PATTERN HERE...AND ITS SOLUTION IS FAVORED FOR THE PATTERN TO THE N WHICH IS GENERATING SWELL MOVING INTO THE REGION. THEREFORE...THE EC WAVE WAS ADDED TO THE MIX WHEN DEVELOPING THE FORECAST HERE...ESPECIALLY FROM WED ONWARD. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: ECMWF BLENDED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WINDS. EC WAVE BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WAVES. THE 0204 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED GALE FORCE WINDS N OF 30N BETWEEN THE EDGE OF THE PASS AT 78W AND 80W. A WINDSAT PASS FROM 2317 UTC ALSO SHOWED GALE HERE. BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF WERE TOO WEAK WITH THE WINDS HERE...BUT THE SLIGHTLY STRONGER ECMWF HAS A BETTER HANDLE ON THE SCENARIO THAN THE GFS. THERE IS REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THE FORECAST AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS THROUGH WED...WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH DEVELOPING A LOW PRES CENTER N OF THE BAHAMAS ALONG THE FRONT TUE EVENING. AS STATED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO SECTION...THE 00Z ECMWF IS PREFERRED WITH THE UPPER LOW PASSING THROUGH MEXICO WED. THE TREND IN THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE IS TOWARD A DEEPER SYSTEM THERE WHICH GENERALLY MEANS SLOWER. THE PROGRESSIVE 00Z GFS ALLOWS THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM TO COME EASTWARD IN PIECES...ALLOWING TROUGHING A LOW TO DEVELOP N OF THE BAHAMAS EARLY THU MORNING BEFORE MOVING NE AWAY FROM THE AREA. THE OTHER MODELS DO NOT SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO. THE ECMWF HOLDS 1030 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST AT THAT TIME AND KEEPS THE FRONT FARTHER SE THAN THE GFS. WILL BLEND THIS ECMWF SOLUTION AND THE EC WAVE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT INTO WED NIGHT. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY. AMZ113...GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.