000 AGXX40 KNHC 250758 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 258 AM EST SAT JAN 25 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH MON MORNING THEN GFS/ECMWF BLEND FOR WIND. MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WAVES. THE 0404 UTC ASCAT-A PASS SHOWED 30-33 KT WINDS ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST S OF 20N W OF 95.5W IN THE AREA OF A CURRENT GALE WARNING. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DEVELOPING LOW PRES SYSTEM NEAR 23N94W MOVING E-NE. AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE COAST AND DRAGS THE FRONT E...LOOK FOR WINDS TO DIE DOWN ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST. THE 21Z SREF AND 00Z GEFS SHOW NO CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS BY 12Z. THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF ALSO DO NOT HAVE A GALE BY 12Z. THEREFORE...THE GALE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE BY 12Z. THE SLIGHTLY STRONGER 00Z GFS IS BETTER INITIALIZED THAN THE 00Z ECMWF...AND ITS SOLUTION IS PREFERRED IN THE SHORT TERM. CONDITIONS GENERALLY IMPROVE ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH MON...WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NW WATERS BY LATE MON. THE 00Z GFS IS STRONGER WITH THE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MON NIGHT THAN THE O0Z ECMWF. THESE MODELS ARE SIMILARLY TIMED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MEANWHILE...THE 00Z UKMET IS STRONG LIKE THE GFS...BUT SLOWER TO CARRY THE FRONT SOUTHEASTWARD. A STRONG SOLUTION SEEMS LIKELY GIVEN THE CURRENT PATTERN. THE GFS SEEMS REASONABLE. THE NWPS IS NOT RAISING WAVE HEIGHTS FAST ENOUGH AS WINDS INCREASE BEHIND THIS FRONT AND WAS NOT AS HIGH INITIALLY WITH SEAS IN THE SW GULF NEAR THE GALE WARNING. THEREFORE...THE MWW3 WAS RELIED ON MORE HEAVILY FOR WAVES THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THE MODELS COME BACK INTO AGREEMENT OVER THE GULF BY EARLY WED WHEN FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WINDS. MWW3/NWPS BLENDED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WAVES IN THE CARIBBEAN. MWW3/EC WAVE BLENDED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC. THE STRONG TRADE WINDS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WILL TAKE A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MON AS A COLD FRONT CLIPS THE SW N ATLC...WEAKENING THE HIGH PRES THERE. THE GFS GENERALLY IS THE STRONGEST MODEL HERE AND COMPARES BEST TO OBSERVATIONS UNDER SUCH A PATTERN. WILL RELY ON THE GFS FORECAST HERE. THE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES IN THE CENTRAL GULF GRADUALLY INCREASES MON-WED REGARDLESS OF THE MODEL CHOICE. THEREFORE...WILL STICK WITH THE GFS IN THE FORECAST PERIOD HERE FOR WINDS. THE GFS-BASED MWW3 BUILDS SEAS TO 12 FT BY WED MORNING OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA COMPARED TO THE EC WAVE WHICH CAPS WAVES AT 9 FT. THE GFS SCENARIO SEEMS MORE LIKELY GIVEN THE FETCH OF STRONG TRADES. THE NWPS...WHICH HAS SUPERIOR BATHYMETRY...AND THE MWW3 WERE BLENDED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WAVES. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...NE SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SEAS OVER 8 FT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. TRADE WINDS WILL REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA SUN NIGHT AND MON MORNING AS HIGH PRES BUILDS N OF THE AREA...BUT SHOULD DIMINISH BY MON NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE NE BEGINS TO WEAKEN THE SURFACE RIDGING. THE GFS HAS A REASONABLE HANDLE ON THE PATTERN HERE...BUT THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS FAVORED FOR THE PATTERN TO THE N WHICH IS GENERATING SWELL MOVING INTO THE REGION. THEREFORE...THE EC WAVE WAS ADDED TO THE MIX WHEN DEVELOPING THE FORECAST HERE...ESPECIALLY FROM LATE TUE ONWARD. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: ECMWF BLENDED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WINDS. EC WAVE BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WAVES. THE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THE FORECAST UNTIL LATE MON. THE LARGEST DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ARE FOUND WITH A SURFACE WAVE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT OVER THE SW N ATLC TUE NIGHT...WITH THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWING A STRONGER AND SLOWER SOLUTION THAN THE GFS...WITH THE NAVGEM AND CMC EVEN SLOWER/STRONGER. THE 12Z EC ENSEMBLE MEAN CARRIES A SOLUTION MORE IN LINE WITH THE STRONGER/SLOWER NAVGEM AND CMC. THIS WOULD BE A LARGE CHANGE FROM CONTINUITY...SO THE COMPROMISE ECMWF AND THE EC WAVE SEEM TO BE THE BEST FOR TRENDING TOWARD A STRONGER/SLOWER SCENARIO. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT INTO WED. GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...GALE WARNING TONIGHT. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.