000
AGXX40 KNHC 241903
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
203 PM EST FRI JAN 24 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS THROUGH SAT MORNING THEN GFS/ECMWF BLEND.

FRONT HAS CONTINUED RACING SSE DOWN MEXICAN COASTAL WATERS DURING
THE DAY...WITH GALES AT LEAST TO 40 KT W OF FRONT. 06Z OSCAT PASS
SHOWED GALES NW OF FRONT ACROSS LOWER TX COASTAL WATERS LATE LAST
NIGHT...BUT HAVE YET TO GET AN OB SHOWING GALES...AND FORECAST
ATTM STILL BASED ON MODEL AGREEMENT. BENIGN AND ILL DEFINED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS E PORTIONS EXTENDS FROM SW FL TO NEAR
26N94.5W THEN S TO VERACRUZ. DENSE OVERCAST AND LIGHT TO MODERATE
STRATOFROM PRECIP BEING FORCED BEHIND FRONT ATTM. WILL CONTINUE
WITH GALE WARNING FARTHER S TO 19N ALONG THE COAST THROUGH 00Z
BASED ON LATEST MODEL RUNS AND ENSEMBLES. 06Z GFS EVEN SHOWED
GALES THERE THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT...AND ALSO SUGGESTED IN PBL BY
ECMWF...BUT WILL WAIT TO SEE LATEST ENSEMBLES BEFORE EXTENDING
THAT LONG IN TIME. THIS IS POSSIBLE AS RIDGE WITH 1027-1030 MB
HIGH NOSED ALMOST TO CHIVELAS PASS AND COULD SUPPORT GALES INTO
THE NIGHT. HAVE AGAIN BUMPED UP WW3 FORECAST BY 2-3 FT WITH THIS
EVENT WITH PEAK SEAS EXPECTED AT LEAST 15 FT. THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO FORECAST WEAK LOW PRES THAT WILL SHIFT EAST- NORTHEASTWARD FROM
THE W CENTRAL GULF TO THE NE GULF TONIGHT THROUGH MON MORNING...TO
THE W OF A WEAK 1020 HIGH OVER THE SE GULF. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF
ON THE STRENGTH OF THE PRES GRADIENT AND WINDS WITH THIS LOW. THE
LOW LIFTS OUT TO THE NE AND INTO SE U.S. MON AS TRAILING BOUNDARY
BEGINS TO MERGE WITH ANOTHER DRY FRONT MOVING INTO TEXAS AND NW
PORTIONS MON.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 65W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS

A LINGERING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM ATLC AND HAS DRIFTED
W TO ACROSS E CUBA AND BILL DEFINED ACROSS NW CARIB. STRONG HIGH
PRES BUILDING ACROSS GULFMEX AND FLORIDA EXPECTED TO BE INDUCING
20-25 KT TO THE NW OF THIS OLD BOUNDARY NOW THROUGH THIS EVENING
ALL THE WAY TO NW PORTIONS OF GULF OF HONDURAS...BEFORE GRADIENT
RELAXES WITH SEAS BUILDING 6-8 FT.

OTHERWISE...NE PULSES OF 20-25 KT PULSES WITH SEAS OF 7-9 FT WILL
CONTINUE ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH SUN...EXCEPT THE
NOCTURNAL MAXIMUM WILL BE AT 25-30+ KT THROUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SAT MORNING. WINDS AND
SEAS TO DIMINISH BASIN WIDE LATE SAT THROUGH SUN AS HIGH PRES
ACROSS GULF WEAKENS AND NEW FRONTAL ZONE SWEEPS ACROSS THE SW N
ATLC.

E ATLC HIGH PRES HAS BUILT INTO THE REGION...HALTING THE PROGRESS
OF ATLC FRONTS AND MAINTAINING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WITH SEAS
6-9 FT ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS THROUGH SAT...WITH NE TO E
WINDS AND GRADUALLY INCREASING TO 20-25 KT LATE SAT THROUGH MON.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF CONSENSUS

STRONG E ATLC RIDGE HAD NUDGED STATIONARY FRONT SLIGHTLY NW PAST
12 HOURS...NOW EXTENDING FROM NEAR 31N57W THROUGH SE BAHAMAS TO E
CUBA...WITH THE E ATLC RIDGE BLOCKING ANY FURTHER EWD PUSH. FRESH
WINDS BEHIND FRONT HAVE LIFTED OUT OF AREA LEAVING TWO PULSES OF
NW SWELL TO MOVE THROUGH WATERS NEXT 48-72 HRS. AS DISCUSSED
YESTERDAY...AN OPPORTUNE ALTIMETER PASS HAD SUGGESTED THAT THE EC
WAVE HANDLING OF THE SECONDARY PULSE OF SWELL IS BETTER THAN WW3.
THE EC WAVE CARRIES SEAS 1-3 FT HIGHER THAN THE MWW3 OVER N
CENTRAL BY TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY
THROUGH THE AREA. PEAK OF FIRST PULSE HAS MOVED THROUGH SE WATERS
PAST 6 HOURS AND NOW HITTING NE CARIB ISLANDS...WITH BUOY 41043
RECENTLY PEAKING AT 8 FT...WHILE 41115 CURRENTLY NEAR PEAK AT
4.5 FT AT 13 SECS. THIS FIRST PULSE TO FADE ACROSS SE PERTIONS
NEXT 8 HOURS BEFORE SECONDARY PULSE MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE...THE STEERING PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO HOLD THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WITH A SERIES OF BENIGN FRONTAL BOUNDARIES SWEEPING ACROSS NW
PORTIONS AND PRODUCING NW-N WINDS 20-25 KT ACROSS W AND NW
PORTIONS FRI...AND THEN WLY FLOW 20-25 KT ACROSS PORTIONS N OF 28N
SAT NIGHT AND SUN.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...GALE WARNING TODAY INTO SAT NIGHT. 
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...NONE.
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.